Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 10:43:07 03/18/99
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On March 18, 1999 at 13:17:05, Charles Unruh wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 10:44:46, KarinsDad wrote: > >>On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote: >> >>>I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a >>>single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me. >> >>Charles, >> >>Your playing history is an anomally. I have played players 400 points below me >>and lost and I have played players 400 points above me and won. > >No it's not really an anomally, most players that i know, and i know hundreds, >indeed are not as steady as myself, but as far as it comes to losing to players >150 points lower than themselves though it happens it's usually less than 1 in >30 or 40 games that it does happen. There is simply something critical that is >being left out in the statistical calculation. Any chance that you are beating up on the same player over and over? Maybe some dummy at your local chess club keeps trying a gambit line that you know a lot better than him? A 150-point rating differential translates to a 30% win probability for the lower rated player. The likelihood of you winning 30 or 40 games in a row in this scenario is essentially zero. You keep drawing this line at 150 pts, but I really suspect that you have compiled these results against much weaker opponents, on average. --Peter
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