Author: Charles Unruh
Date: 10:17:05 03/18/99
Go up one level in this thread
On March 18, 1999 at 10:44:46, KarinsDad wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote: > >>I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a >>single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me. > >Charles, > >Your playing history is an anomally. I have played players 400 points below me >and lost and I have played players 400 points above me and won. No it's not really an anomally, most players that i know, and i know hundreds, indeed are not as steady as myself, but as far as it comes to losing to players 150 points lower than themselves though it happens it's usually less than 1 in 30 or 40 games that it does happen. There is simply something critical that is being left out in the statistical calculation. > >There are some players who play "similar" to computers in that for their level >of ability, they make very few tactical mistakes. You may be one of those types >of players. I am not one of those types of players. I can make a valid sac of a >knight against a player 600 points higher than me and worry the heck out of him >and 5 moves later, I can make a putzer move that 3 moves earlier, I mentally >said to myself could not be made in the game. > >My current rating is almost 400 points lower than yours and I would make a wager >that in a 10 game match of 40/2 G/60, I would take 1 to 2 points from you. Why? >Because I sometimes play at expert level and sometimes play at D level. It just >depends on how well I am concentrating at the time. Wager? I have played played a match(game in 60)last year with a player rated 1584, i was rated 1812 at the time i beat him 10 straight games. I had beat him 4 times previously that wasn't a part of the match. your wager is but conjecture, 400 points below me i doubt your wager. The odds say that i should beat Kasparov 1 in so many games, but he could play me down a pawn a 1000 games despite what the odds say, i doubt seriously that i'd win a game. > >> In a mere 6 >>game match yermo could be expected to take H7 out 6 0. > >Yermo will almost definitely not win 6-0. The reason is that if he is leading >the match (say 2-0), he will take a draw in a basically drawn position and not >push for a win that may not be there. This happens a lot at the GM level and I >cannot imagine that it will not happen in this match. > >> My rating is currently >>in the 1900s. I'm sure there are many players with similar records. > >I have drawn or beaten at G30 or slower times every 1900-1999 player in the 2 >main clubs I have played in within the last 3 years at one time or another and >my rating is currently in the high 1500s. I would predict that there are very >few players with your type of record. I have beaten people 200 points above me as well, some people have consistency some don't. > >> This leads >>me to believe that there is some error when one predicts that in a 6 game match >>that a 2500 player should score 2/6 against a 2630 player. I certainly hope H7 >>is much stronger than 2500, otherwise this will just increase speculation about >>the progs strength. > >Your assumption here is based on your previous assumption as to other players >having similar narrow banded win/draw/lose ratios like yourself. Other players do. Just look at kasparov Anand, and Kramnik, i don't have the statistic but it was placed in this group, and the predicted statistic for players 150-200+ points below them simply did not hold. Kasp played no one under 2600. This is rarely >the case, so the second assumption here is probably also based on a false >premise. All that is rare is my perfect record, but as for the 1 in 30 or 40 games of most people that's not rare at all.
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