Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 11:06:16 03/18/99
Go up one level in this thread
On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote: >I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a >single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me. In a mere 6 >game match yermo could be expected to take H7 out 6 0. My rating is currently >in the 1900s. I'm sure there are many players with similar records. This leads >me to believe that there is some error when one predicts that in a 6 game match >that a 2500 player should score 2/6 against a 2630 player. I certainly hope H7 >is much stronger than 2500, otherwise this will just increase speculation about >the progs strength. This because if it loses all of the games we can only judge >it's strength by the quality of play not by how many games it lost. A 2500 >player would be a much better purely investigative experiment. Alas we must >take what we can get. This match should be more fun from a spectators point of >view, but from an investigative point of view, there may not be much knowledge >gleaned, unles H7 is considerably stronger than 2500. Everyone primarily has >been wanting to demonstrate that comps are at least 2500 first. While I obviously won't argue with your 'data', you are a 100-sigma deviation from the normal curve as defined by Elo. IE first, how many players have you played 150 points below you? if you have played 20 and lost none, that is a remarkable (and highly non-repeatable for most others) result. Because in a match, with a player 200 points lower, you should expect to lose 1 or draw 2 of every 4 games... roughly... And that is just simple statistics based on the Elo rating system..
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