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Subject: Re: Poll Question - Tournaments vs Matches

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 13:36:33 01/05/00

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On January 05, 2000 at 15:11:43, Chris Carson wrote:

>Your opinion is valued.  :)
>
>Take a look at some of the tournament performance
>ratings (TPR) of some of the programs (Genius, Junior, Rebel,
>Tiger, Hiarcs, and others).  See the computer resource center,
>rebel web page, Gambit Soft tournaments page and U pitt.  Take
>a look a the AEGON and other events.  Also take a look at the
>ratings on ICC.  Top programs have high ratings there.  :)
>
>Be prepared to be shocked.  Sometimes the programs have high
>TPR's (above SSDF ratings).  Critics call these an aberation.
>Sometimes the programs have lower than SSDF ratings.  Critics
>call this the norm.  I think both are expected and normal,
>just as human ratings fluctuate within expected norms.  :)
>
>Best Regards,
>Chris Carson


This is bad statistical methodology however.  If you pick any program of your
choice from Aegon, I will pick one to offset it.  For any 2600TPR you find, I
will find one with a 2200 TPR.  That is the problem.  Statistics looks at the
averages, not at individual data points.  And the average is way below 2600.

As far as ICC goes, Crafty has been over 3250 there.  I doubt it would have a
prayer in hell of doing that in FIDE events, running on a T932 even.



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