Author: Jeremiah Penery
Date: 16:25:40 01/27/00
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On January 27, 2000 at 18:31:09, Dann Corbit wrote: >On January 27, 2000 at 18:24:30, Jeremiah Penery wrote: > >>On January 27, 2000 at 17:40:45, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On January 27, 2000 at 17:37:05, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>[snip] >>>>Is there something simple I'm just missing here? >>> >>>time. >>> >>>If chess has a branching factor of 50, and speed has an increase of 2x, we just >>>wait 25 times as long. >> >>Which is exactly my point. Playing an actual game, you can't wait 25 times as >>long. You still only have 3 min/move (or whatever the time control is). >> >>Increased speed will have diminishing returns with respect to the time used. :) > >That's not the time I was talking about. I was talking about waiting until a >faster chip comes along. So, if chess is 3x on each ply and computers are 2x on >each year, we'll have to wait a year and a half instead of a year to get the >next ply by power alone. This is what you originally wrote: ------ Do you know how Deep Blue searched? How will we reach those fantastic speeds? Faster hardware does not inflate ratings. It raises it by a logarithmic amount for each increase. It is estimated about 50 ELO. So, suppose we have a program with 2500 ELO and we want to get to 2800. 2500 + 50ELO/doubling * 6 doublings = 2800. Sounds pretty simple, right? But if it takes 500 Mhz to get 2500 ELO, then it will take: 500 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 32 GHz to achieve it (roughly speaking). IOW, more horsepower is a tough way to make chess programs play better. There is also evidence (according to some) that the increase in speed has *diminishing* returns. Hence, it may take a terahertz to get there. Don't know of any material that could do that, not even a Josephson Junction. ------------ When you're talking about increasing Elo, I assume that's in games with some time control. When you said that the increase in speed has diminishing returns, I figured this was because of the exponential nature of the chess tree. I.e., at some point, the increase in speed to see any gain will be prohibitively high.
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