Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 17:01:55 01/27/00
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On January 27, 2000 at 19:25:40, Jeremiah Penery wrote: [snip] >This is what you originally wrote: >------ >Do you know how Deep Blue searched? How will we reach those fantastic speeds? >Faster hardware does not inflate ratings. It raises it by a logarithmic amount >for each increase. It is estimated about 50 ELO. So, suppose we have a program >with 2500 ELO and we want to get to 2800. >2500 + 50ELO/doubling * 6 doublings = 2800. Sounds pretty simple, right? > >But if it takes 500 Mhz to get 2500 ELO, then it will take: > >500 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 32 GHz to achieve it (roughly speaking). > >IOW, more horsepower is a tough way to make chess programs play better. There >is also evidence (according to some) that the increase in speed has >*diminishing* returns. Hence, it may take a terahertz to get there. Don't know >of any material that could do that, not even a Josephson Junction. >------------ > >When you're talking about increasing Elo, I assume that's in games with some >time control. When you said that the increase in speed has diminishing returns, >I figured this was because of the exponential nature of the chess tree. I.e., >at some point, the increase in speed to see any gain will be prohibitively high. I don't remember where I read it, and I can't find the article now. It may even have been discussions on this board. As far as diminishing returns, I meant that you don't always get 50 ELO for the next ply. At some point, maybe you get 40, then later 30, etc. I don't know the answer to the question, and (quite frankly) I doubt very seriously if anyone does. Ernst Heinz is doing an experiment that will answer the question.
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