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Subject: Re: Ply Depth in Relation to Elo Rating

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 15:00:51 05/17/00

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On May 17, 2000 at 16:00:42, Joshua Lee wrote:

>I was wondering the Ratings of the Different Mainframe computers of the past
>like Deep Blue 1 and 2 and Deep Thought and how many ply they looked ahead?
>Also What Clock Speed would a PC need to be equivalent? These below are what i
>have found while the Processor speed if on a PC is my Guess.
>
>I have found different things on the internet. Here is my list:
> Deeper Blue                1997   15 Ply  2817 (USCF)   200 Million NPS
>2.048Thz

The above is wrong, based on their output posted on their web site.  They
were searching (typically) 10-11 plies in software, plus another 5-7 plies
in hardware.  IE the very minimum depth they would see was maybe 15 plies,
but more common numbers were 17-18.  Look at the IBM web site, under the
Deep Blue section, and notice the depths, which are given like this:
11(6).  That means 11 plies in software + another 6 plies in hardware, for
17 plies total.



> Deep Blue                    1996             12 Ply (*)14 Ply 2642(FIDE?)
>(*2535) 100 Million NPS 1.024Thz

See above.  DB2 was about 2x faster, although it had a much bigger evaluation
than DB1.  The depths were fairly close, with DB 2 at best going 1 ply deeper.


> Deep Thought II        1991                  6-7 Million NPS 64Ghz
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2009                    6.272.000-6.308.000
>64Ghz
> Cray Blitz T90              ????                  5-7 Million NPS

Cray Blitz could hit this number on the T932, which was first delivered maybe
5 years ago or so.  We didn't play many games, but did see search depths of
11-12 plies in the middlegame...  We didn't use recursive null-move R=2 which
would likely have added at least 2 plies to that figure.




> Hiarcs 7.32                  2008                     3.136.000-3.172.000
>32Ghz
> Deep Thought            1989                2480-2500 (FIDE) 2 Million NPS
>20Ghz?
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2006                     1.568.000-1.604.000
>16Ghz
> Cray Blitz C90?          1995                  1.5 Million NPS

About right.  depth of 10-11 plies.  the T90 added about 1 ply.


> Hiarcs 7.32                  2005                     784,000-820,000   8Ghz
> Deep Thought 0.02    1988             2551(USCF) 2451(FIDE?) 750,000 NPS*
>7.453Ghz
> Deep Thought 0.01    1988              720,000 NPS
> Chiptest-M                 1987              500,000 NPS
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2003               392,000-428,000 4Ghz
> Hitech                          1995              200,000 NPS
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2001          196,000-232,000   2Ghz
> Hitech                          1988 2413(USCF) 2363 or 2313FIDE   175,000 NPS
> Hitech                          1985 2350
> Belle                             1983 2263         160,000
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2000           98,000-134,000   1Ghz
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2000 2660(LCTII)2460(FIDE EST) 87,000-123,000Nps
>Middlegame
> Chiptest                       1985               50,000 Nodes Per Sec
> Belle                             1978
>
>                                   ELO and Ply Depth
>                                      2650     15Ply
>                                      2625     14Ply        Only this deep in
>the Endgame         (Deep Blue in the            Middlegame)          This
>Matches  elo - Ply
>                                      2600    13Ply
>                                      2575     12Ply      Deep Thought 1989
>this Matches elo-ply
>                                      2550    11Ply   Sometimes 11Ply in the
>Middlegame
>                                      2525    10Ply
>                                      2500    9Ply           But Usually 8 or 9
>                                      2475     8Ply    Hiarcs Looks atleast 8
>Complete Ply in The Middlegame (this matches LCT II -200  (2690- 200 =2490)
>                                      2450    7Ply
>                                      2425     6Ply
>                                      2400     5Ply
>                                      2375      4Ply
>                                      2350      3ply       Hitech 1988   However
>this doesn't match up obviously not everybody is playing with the same Ply hehe
>haha...
>I've heard before how much doubling clock speed results in but it was an SSDF
>thing(which must be atleast 150points too high??)   but against humans this is a
>different story.
>
>Some of the things i've run across online have mentioned the experiments to
>figure out ply in relation
>to elo   they said sometimes 1Ply deeper meant like 80-192elo
>and that knowledge meant 200-300 more elo   but i am not sure about this i just
>want to hear other opinions.   Thankyou
>
>
>

doubling the cpu speed is generally said to produce 50-60 rating points.
Since the typical effective branching factor is around 3.0, every time the
speed is tripled, we get another ply, and using the 60 point figure above,
a ply would be about 90 rating points, roughly.  But there is nothing that
says that as we go deeper this doesn't taper off.  Nor is there anything that
says that as we go deeper, the gain doesn't actually get larger...




>
>
>
>*according to the Deeper Blue - Kasparov Match article in Chess Life
>http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book97/ch3/
>http://mitpress.mit.edu/e-books/Hal/chap5/five4.html
>http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Lab/7378/comphis.htm
>http://foxnet.cs.cmu.edu/people/spot/frg/Berliner.txt
>see also Dejanews   search for FAQ WWW Hypertext Edition (rgc Groups FAQ)
>In 1988 DEEP THOUGHT and Grandmaster Tony Miles shared first place in the U.S.
>Open championship. DEEP THOUGHT had a 2745 performance rating. This matches up
> 2745-180 = 2565
>
>In 1985 HITECH achieved a performace rating of 2530
>2530-180 = 2350
>
>In 1983 Belle became the first computer to beat a master in tournament play and
>the first computer to gain a master rating (2263)

This is wrong.  Belle became the first program with an established rating of
over 2200.  (2208 was the number.)  They were awarded the title "life master"
by the USCF at the 1983 WCCC event in NY.  Cray Blitz beat a master in 1981 to
win the Mississippi State Chess Championship.  The master it beat was Joe
Sentef, and the game was published in Chess Life in late 1981 or early 1982.



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