Author: Ralf Elvsén
Date: 01:15:50 06/07/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 07, 2000 at 02:03:35, blass uri wrote: >On June 07, 2000 at 00:34:01, Jorge wrote: > >>On June 06, 2000 at 15:16:03, blass uri wrote: >> >>>On June 06, 2000 at 14:20:18, Jorge wrote: >>> >>>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:23:34, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>>>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>>>>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>>>>>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>>>>>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>>>>>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>>>>>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>>>>>>Wayne >>>>>>> >>>>>>>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>>>>>>at longer time controls. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>>>>>>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>>>>>>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>>>>>>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>>>>>>looks odd... >>>>>>> >>>>>>>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. >>>>>> >>>>>>I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >>>>>>can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is >>>>>> 10 >>>>>>0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >>>>>>190 try. >>>>>> >>>>>>Jouni >>>>> >>>>>The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of >>>>>the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to >>>>>0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. >>>>> >>>>>Ralf >>>> >>>>Ralf, I'm trying to follow what you are saying about the probabilities, but >>>>something is wrong here. If 0.592 is approx. true for both wins and draws, then >>>>the P(Junior does not loose in 10 or more) much < .005, actually < >>>>0.005*2=0.000025 (since it happened twice in one event) which is a big deal! >>> >>>0.005*2=0.01 so I understand that you mean 0.005*0.005 and I use 0.005^2 for >>>this number. >>>I do not understand how do you get 0.005^2 >>> >>>0.442 is the probability for Junior to win one game(assuming 30% draws and >>>expected result 0.592 in one game) so 0.442^10=0.00028 is the probability to win >>>10 games in a row. >>> >>>This assumption ignores the fact that the probability to win with white is not >>>the same as the probability to win with black and it also ignores the fact that >>>the events are dependable because of learning. >>> >>>learning can make the probability bigger because it is possible that after >>>enough games one program is going to start to win every game by repeating the >>>same opening when the other side's book is not big enough to avoid repeating the >>>same opening. >>> >>>The probability is also bigger because the match is of 41 games so the >>>probability to win 10 games in a row in the match is bigger than the probability >>>to win 10:0 in a match of 10 games >>>Uri >> >> >>Yes, I'm assuming randomness and independence which is a big factor, however i >>believe the Prob. of W is about the same as prob. of B winning in the long run >>and that the variabilty is the same for both colors. Assuming Ralph's original >>calculations is somewhat true, P(Junior=Win or Draw)=0.592, then the P(Junior >>Wins or Drws =37 out of n=41 total games)= 41C37(.59)^37*(.41)^4= 0.0000095 (C >>is Combination), which means this event approximately happens 1 in 105,000 >>trials! But listen, you dont need to calculate anything to "sense" there is >>something wrong here with the above games, which weighs heavily into Junior's >>favor. > >I do not know if there is something wrong with the games. >There is a mistake in your calculations. > >The assumption P(Junior=win or draw)=0.592 is wrong. >The assumption was that o.592 is the expected result in one game and not >p(Junior wins or draw) > >If p(Junior draw)=0.3 then P(Junior wins)=0.442 then >p(Junior wins or draws)=0.742 by this assumption. > >Uri Yes, and Jorge, as I understand it you wanted to calculate the probability of getting exactly 37 non-losses and 4 losses out of 41 games. This in itself is a rather special result. I looked in a table and 33.5/41 indicates a rating difference of 260 points. The question should perhaps be put "What is the probability to get a performance rating difference of at least 260 points in 41 games, given that the "true" rating difference is 65 points?" Making assumptions about the rate of draws and neglecting the complicating factors Uri mentioned, this can be worked out, but I don't have the time right now. Ralf (not Ralph :)
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