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Subject: Re: Fritz is not champ, the match result is under the margin of error

Author: Terry Ripple

Date: 04:34:02 07/30/00

Go up one level in this thread


On July 29, 2000 at 10:48:35, Chessfun wrote:

>On July 29, 2000 at 10:12:48, Albert Silver wrote:
>
>>On July 29, 2000 at 03:50:59, Terry Ripple wrote:
>>
>>>On July 28, 2000 at 15:45:15, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>
>>>>On July 28, 2000 at 01:05:53, Terry Ripple wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Used an AMD K6-2, 266Mhz, 64Ram, Ponder off, 16Mb Hash per engine.
>>>>>
>>>>>If anyone cares to see some or all of the games, i will be glad to post them.
>>>>> This match shows how close the strengths are between these two fine engines!
>>>>>
>>>>>Best regards,
>>>>>Terry
>>>>>
>>>>>Blitz:5'  2000
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>1   Fritz 6      158.0/306
>>>>>2   Hiarcs 7.32  148.0/306
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>No offense intended Terry, but you cannot say with this match which program is
>>>>the best.
>>>>
>>>>The result of this match is 51.63% in favor of Fritz.
>>>>
>>>>I don't have the typical margin of error for 306 games, but I know that for 400
>>>>games it is +/-2.5% (80% confidence) and +/-2.1% (70% confidence).
>>>>
>>>>So even if you got this 51.63% with a 400 games match, you couldn't say which
>>>>program won because 51.63% is between 47.5% and 52.5% (80% confidence). You
>>>>couldn't even say Fritz is better with 70% confidence.
>>>>
>>>>That's the problem with chess matches results... You have to apply some
>>>>statistic formulas and sometimes you discover that the match does not say which
>>>>is best...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>    Christophe
>>>
>>> Please explain where you may get a margin of error when there isn't a human
>>>operator making any moves on the chess board? Please, i would like to learn more
>>>about this!
>>>
>>>Regards, Terry
>>
>>The margin of error he is talking about isn't that of mistakes in the input of
>>the moves, but of statistical certainty of who the best is. With that many games
>>you can ascertain which is best but there is a margin of error, and that is the
>>margin of error he is talking about. Fritz may have won the match but in order
>>to say it is the best you either need to factor in the statistical margin of
>>error or play more games.
>>
>>                                    Albert Silver
>
>
>I am not sure but 16 mb of hash sounds too much for a 5 min game. Anyway which
>version of Fritz is this. 6a?, light?, as originally I see Terry posting about
>Light.
>
>Thanks.

Hi Chessfun,
 The version that i'am using in this match of 306 games is still Fritz Light
which i was told is the identical Fritz 6 partner!

Regards,Terry



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