Author: Jonathan Lee
Date: 17:44:18 09/05/00
Go up one level in this thread
On September 05, 2000 at 16:04:59, Peter Kappler wrote:
>On September 05, 2000 at 15:47:33, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>
>> Statistically speaking (although imperfect and controversial) does doubling
>>the computer speed means adding 30 rating points for FIDE or SSDF?
>> I know people will say more or less, depends on time control, and it's not
>>linear at all.
>> Hopefully the top notch software have similar variables to each other.
>> Jonathan (64th message)
>
>
>Everything I've seen says 70 points per doubling.
>
>The question is whether or not this trend continues indefinitely. My personal
>opinion is that it must gradually taper off with increasing depth.
>
>--Pete
Allow me to be more specific:
Let's make the time control 40 moves in 2 hours and sudden death 2 more
hours with human vs. machine.
Humans also have limits or tapering off on the middle game too.
Assume you have a GM database, how many GHZ will it take to match the middle
game move on a given position of both players who are top 10 in the world?
Upon using the fastest PC (currently 1 GHZ), you can match the middle game
position and move "in a number of hours".
Since 40 moves in 2 hours equals 3 minutes per move, in 24 hours when the move
has a match, it means a 480 GHZ computer could equal the IGM.
24 hours divided by 3 minutes equals 480 on a 1 GHZ computer.
2^9=512 which almost equals 480 GHZ. 512==480
9 times 70 = 630 rating points
I agree it MUST taper off; about 600 rating points is way too much.
FIDE rating 2500 + 600 = out of bounds
Of course, GM knows that closed pawn structure and queens on the board adds
complexity and the best way to beat the machine. Disregarding complexity, at
some GHZ the computer reaches a 2800, 2850, and 2900 FIDE ratings under
tournament time controls.
That is my question. You could use Fritz 6 or the other close contenders.
We could also compare Deeper Blue moves (positions) with the current PC also
as long it takes about 24 hours on 1 GHZ.
Jonathan (65th message)
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