Author: Jason Williamson
Date: 21:08:55 09/23/00
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On September 23, 2000 at 19:55:13, Albert Silver wrote: >On September 23, 2000 at 12:16:51, Jason Williamson wrote: > >>On September 22, 2000 at 17:36:32, Stephen Ham wrote: >> >>>Dear Terry, >>> >>>Jeroen is correct. One should use database statistics only as a very general >>>guide. >>> >>>Consider this: Somebody plays a tricky new move and wins with it. Others >>>discover the tricky new move and win with it too. Let's assume that after a >>>period of time, the line acumulates 9 wins. However, at some point, an opponent >>>finally busts the line because it was not intrinsically sound. So the fact is, >>>the line is no good, but the statistics say that out of 10 games played, it won >>>90% of the time. So Terry, what are you going to believe, the statistics or the >>>truth? >>> >>>Database statistics would thus lead one to belive that good lines are "bad" and >>>bad lines are "good". Instead, my advice, Terry, is to forget about what that >>>statistics say and play openings that you both think are good/best and you feel >>>comfortable playing. >>> >>>Good luck, Terry. >>> >>>Stephen >> >>The above doesn't really hold, since if enough peopple (read 9) think its good >>for the tricky move and lose with it, the database will suddenly be at 50%. So >>eventually, the refuted move will correct it self. > >Not unless the players don't keep their databases up-to-date. > > Albert Silver > >>This of course assumes you >>update your database. >> >>On the other hand, nothing will match your own eye, and a good opening book on >>the variations you want to study. >> >> >>JW Hmm I think I said that one line below where you put your answer. JW
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