Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 11:16:19 02/04/01
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On February 04, 2001 at 14:11:19, Hermano Ecuadoriano wrote: >On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: > >> >>I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >>The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >>Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >>Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. >> >>Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >>head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... >> >> >> files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 >> >>Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >>======================================= >>0 14480 48.82 25.67 >>25 15365 46.57 31.45 >>50 15784 44.60 35.52 >>75 15429 41.80 39.62 >>100 14092 38.68 44.26 >>125 12121 35.08 49.18 >>150 9926 31.92 54.47 >>175 8129 28.34 58.89 >>200 6478 25.39 63.71 >>225 4707 22.82 67.94 >>250 3443 20.65 69.82 >>275 2575 18.45 73.67 >>300 1879 15.59 77.38 >>325 1370 15.62 78.83 >>350 970 10.52 85.46 >>375 687 9.32 86.90 >>400 453 7.06 89.18 >> >>Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) >> >>-Andrew- > >This is good data to look at. >But you need another dimension: either rating mean, or the rating of the >higher rated player. I suggest the mean. >Then, having a table like the above for every rating level, somebody can >curve-fit the thing. > >These databases are something else that ELO didn't have. Exactly, there is a big difference from below 2000 and above 2000 as K factor gets for FIDE rating from 25 down to 15 down to 10. Nevertheless good work from Andrew!!
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