Author: Günther Simon
Date: 06:49:27 02/05/01
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On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: > >I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. > >Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... > > > files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 > >Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >======================================= >0 14480 48.82 25.67 >25 15365 46.57 31.45 >50 15784 44.60 35.52 >75 15429 41.80 39.62 >100 14092 38.68 44.26 >125 12121 35.08 49.18 >150 9926 31.92 54.47 >175 8129 28.34 58.89 >200 6478 25.39 63.71 >225 4707 22.82 67.94 >250 3443 20.65 69.82 >275 2575 18.45 73.67 >300 1879 15.59 77.38 >325 1370 15.62 78.83 >350 970 10.52 85.46 >375 687 9.32 86.90 >400 453 7.06 89.18 > >Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) > >-Andrew- There is something in this statistics which makes me get headaches because it has not much to do with chess. The point is in the mass of draws "played" in just a few moves sometimes even in zero moves!! There are several reasons for this behaviour like knowing the opponent very well,sharing at least prices,being exhausted after a long tournament and some others... But will this games not going to falsify the statistics?! I presume that in all kind of huge collections of chessgames nowadays are a terribly lot of such "games".(For my original Bigbase of CB I know this) For myself I decided long time ago to delete all drawn games under move 9 or 10 in my database well knowing that this is just kind of difficult compromise. But the question is how can I trust the statistics e.g. in showing the winning percentage of different opening variations or cant I trust statistics of that kind anyway?
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