Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 07:35:29 04/02/01
Go up one level in this thread
On April 02, 2001 at 00:28:42, Uri Blass wrote: >On April 01, 2001 at 18:42:27, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: > >>On April 01, 2001 at 11:00:11, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On March 31, 2001 at 21:13:22, Torstein Hall wrote: >>> >>>>I do not think IBM stand to loose anytihing. The big public has forgotten that >>>>Deep Blue ever existed! Anyway, I feel the marketing value of DB is low nopw, so >>>>perhaps someone with a few extra bucks to spare can buy DB now? >>>> >>>>Torstein >>>> >>>>Was it really a monster playing chess named DB? >>> >>> >>>I think you are _way_ wrong. I just got back from a visit to my home >>>town with a population of about 1,500 people. I wore a T-shirt that Compaq >>>sent me (they took Crafty + an alpha, to the Linux expo, and let anyone play >>>it). The shirt had "I survive the compaq computer chess challenge" on the >>>back. Several people asked me "hey, how would your program do against IBM's >>>monster?" >>> >>>People remember deep blue. Because _I_ didn't mention it at all. If you ask >>>100 random people about the best chess player, human or machine, more people >>>will remember the name "deep blue" than "kasparov". >> >>Exactly. >> >>So if they lose a match they might lose a market share and a lot of >>'deep blue' quotes. The possible market share they might lose is >>worth 37 billion at wall street and it's worth a lot of PR too. > >I do not believe it. >Bruce explained that your math is wrong. > >Uri I don't believe IBM would _lose_ a thing. They would definitely gain more if DB won a third match. They would not _lose_ if it didn't, they just would not gain as much useful publicity. A loss would definitely hurt when compared to a win, but it would not hurt the company's stock value as of today one iota. IBM got a world of free (and very good) publicity from the second Kasparov match. But that was _all_ they got, just a windfall of free publicity. Their stock prices might have inched up a bit as a result, but only a tiny bit as new investors jumped aboard due to all the publicity. To think they would lose billions by playing again and losing is a wild stretch of the imagination. What they would lose is "reputation" in the eyes of the general public, and it is not even clear how much "reputation" they would actually lose since they won the last match. The 3rd match would not receive near the publicity of the first or second.
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