Author: Ed Schröder
Date: 00:23:23 11/17/01
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On November 17, 2001 at 01:34:28, Uri Blass wrote: >On November 17, 2001 at 00:25:14, Ed Schröder wrote: > >>On November 16, 2001 at 19:12:59, Christophe Theron wrote: >> >>>On November 16, 2001 at 16:20:45, Hansjoerg wrote: >>> >>>>Some time ago I posted the (surprising) result from an engine tournament between >>>>Fritz 7 and Junior 7 (14.5-4.5). >>>>Now I finished 100 games and the result is F7 (49.5) - J7 (50.5)! >>> >>> >>> >>>Welcome to the world of statistics! >>> >>> >>> >>> Christophe >> >> >>Yep, ask any casino director where his profit comes from :) >> >>I once have written a 10-line C program, it randomly generates a score >>(1-0, 1/2-1/2, 0-1) and then starts counting. Results vary tremendously. ><snipped> >>100 games: 70-30 > >I understand your idea but >70-30 between equal programs does not make sense. But Uri, you can program yourself, just try it. It is pure statistics. And if you are not convinced, run 1000 blitz games, divide them in parts of 100, and you will see at least one 70-30 score. Ed >The probability for it between equal players is very low(I did not calculate but >I am sure that less than 0.1%). > >The variance in one game is 1/6 and it means the variance in 100 games is 100/6 >and it means the standard deviation in 100 games is less than 4.1 > >being almost 5 standrad deviation give a very small probability and I am sure >that it is less than 0.1% and I believe that it is even less than 0.01% > >If you get 70-30 in a match of 100 games you can be practically sure that the >winner is better. > >Uri
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