Author: Peter Hegger
Date: 12:13:28 01/27/02
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On January 26, 2002 at 12:52:34, Albert Silver wrote: >On January 26, 2002 at 12:29:50, Janosch Zwerensky wrote: > >> >>>And finally you have a miserable 3 moves that don't lose forcibly. >> >>The problem is that often two of these three will give the opponent the >>opportunity to create lots of pressure in the long run. "Creating lots of >>pressure" here means that the opponent can steer the game into a direction where >>less than three correct moves are available per ply for the human. > >If it gets reduced to only 2 or 3 then possibly, but that still doesn't change >the probability. Also, it most likely will be much more than 3 moves in most >positions. In an equal position I'd be very surprised if there were only 3 >non-losing moves. That would be insane and extremely unlikely. That would mean >that only 3 plans or move-orders are possible and that don't lose. Sounds like a >very different game than the one I know. I don't see how or why the balance of >the position could be so delicate or compromised. > > Albert The percentile of "correct", meaning perfect winning or drawing moves at any one point in the game, must also move in a non-linear fashion from move 1 onwards. Hypothetically speaking :the perfect 32 man tablebase would know that after 1d4 ...d5 2.c4 that 2...cxd4 or 2...nf6 was losing by force with black. Would any entity of the present, human or silicon see such a thing? Of course not. When the pieces have started to disappear and the chances of getting a krkr ending are closer, of course the percentile of correct moves increases. But I submit that the chances of the imperfect player geting to this ending are slim to nil because of the lower chance of getting a positive hit in the 32man TB early on. Peter have multiplied the chances of finding correct moves are much higher. I submit that as long as
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