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Subject: Re: A theory of ratings drift for the SSDF

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 14:58:02 04/10/02

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On April 10, 2002 at 16:13:23, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On April 09, 2002 at 16:04:01, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>
>one quick note.  You are falling into the same "trap" that 99% of the
>people here fall into... treating the "rating" as "absolute".  It is not.
>You should compare the rating of (say) 1996 chessmaster to 1996 genius,
>then compare the 2002 ratings for both and see if the "spread" has
>changed much.  If it has, something is wrong.  If it has not, then the
>Elo system is working perfectly...
>
>The absolute rating probably should drop since new and more skilled players
>are entering the "pool" each year...  But the spread between two programs
>should not change significantly...

Why would the spread change if they still use the same formula?
The difference in elo between players is just related to the win/lose ratio
between them, so the spread should stay fixed if the win/lose ratio remains the
same.

Of cause the scale could drift up or down, but since programs perform at a
constant level, we do have a tool to correct for that.
As I suggested in a different post, one could simply take a group of programs,
find their average and make sure that average remains constant.
It would be far better with a large group than just one or two programs, much
smaller errorbars on the "absoluteness" of the scale.

-S.
>



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