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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Roy Eassa

Date: 13:46:42 04/17/02

Go up one level in this thread


On April 17, 2002 at 16:24:22, Uri Blass wrote:

>On April 17, 2002 at 15:59:18, Roy Eassa wrote:
>
>>On April 17, 2002 at 15:48:49, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>A given computer's rating will go down significantly (even though it does not
>>>gain or lose one iota of strength objectively) if and when its human opponents
>>>gain anti-computer skills.
>>>
>>>Does that make sense?
>>>
>>>I guess early ratings are one thing and ACTUAL STRENGTH is a different thing
>>>that is much harder to measure (requiring much more scientifically controlled
>>>circumstances).
>>>
>>>For humans versus humans, the two things (rating and actual strength) have
>>>tradionally been closely related, except when the player is a young child who is
>>>improving very rapidly.
>>>
>>>There is significant reason to believe that RATING and actual STRENGTH can get
>>>*way* out of sync with each other when it comes to computers, due to the extreme
>>>relevance of the anti-computer skills (and not normal chess skills) of the
>>>humans they have faced.
>>
>>
>>
>>Also, most (nearly all?) computers that have gotten an early rating (using fixed
>>hardware and software) have seen that rating drop SIGNIFICANTLY over time, as
>>humans learn better how to play well against computers.
>>
>>Does that mean:
>>
>>a) The computer is getting steadily weaker at chess?  or
>>
>>b) Humans are quickly getting much better at chess?  or
>>
>>c) A computer's early rating is NOT an accurate reflection of the computer's
>>actual chess strength, but is SKEWED by the fact that humans lack a special
>>skill that is required in order for them to score accurately against computers
>>-- a skill that is SEPARATE and distinct from the traditional skill most human
>>chess players have focused on?
>>
>>d) Some other explaination (please fill in)?
>
>A computer with constant hardware and software should not be allowed to get a
>rating against humans if it cannot change it's evaluation function and players
>can repeat similiar strategies to beat it.
>
>If the evaluation function is not changed after learning from games then it
>should not get a rating without changes in the software.
>
>Usually changing the evaluation is done by the programmers.
>I think that it can also be done by automatic learning of the program from
>games.
>
>I think that the program also need to be private in order to get a rating
>because in other cases the player may buy the machine and repeat a game that the
>machine even did not know about.
>
>Uri


I was not actually referring to a *specific* human learning the weaknesses of a
*specific* program, but rather to the likelihood that most GMs will improve
their overall anti-computer abilities with time, and some will improve this
ability by a LOT.

Take a strong program running on a fast PC -- I'll agree it could rate 2700 in
current GM matches -- and put the only copy of it in a vault for 6 years.  Let
no human play it or study it during that time.  Let the best 3 anti-computer GMs
of the year 2008 play matches against it.

I think there's a very significant probability that that SAME program running on
that SAME hardware would then achieve a rating of 2500.  Did it get 200 points
weaker sitting in the vault?



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