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Subject: Re: Kasparov vs Deep Blue

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:46:33 05/31/02

Go up one level in this thread


On May 31, 2002 at 07:01:45, Chris Carson wrote:

>On May 30, 2002 at 19:29:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On May 30, 2002 at 19:08:49, Chris Carson wrote:
>>
>>>On May 30, 2002 at 17:59:35, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>
>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:34:25, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:19:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:15:59, Jerry Jones wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Does anybody know what the highest official ELO rating according to FIDE is that
>>>>>>>was ever attained by a human, Kasparov that is.
>>>>>>>Is it possible that a few years ago his rating was a few points higher ?
>>>>>>>If Kasparov had declined to play Deep Blue, would this have influenced his
>>>>>>>rating ?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You can add one million points to his ELO rating if you like.  Or subtract them.
>>>>>> Just be sure to do it to everyone else and it is perfectly valid.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>ELO figures are only valuable as differences within a pool of players who have
>>>>>>had many competitions against each other.  The absolute numbers mean absolutely
>>>>>>nothing.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>This is a continual problem.  :)  32 degrees F means one thing.  32 degrees C
>>>>>means another thing.  32 degrees K means another thing.  No way to compare
>>>>>today's 2850 rating to the ratings of players 40 years ago.
>>>>
>>>>It is perfectly sensible to compare ratings of 40 years ago and even more to
>>>>today's. That's because at no point in time did the pool of players change, with
>>>>an old group completely replaced by another. The ratings are measured against
>>>>the field, which changes continuously, and provides continuity of the ratings.
>>>>
>>>>So, even if Kasparov and Fischer never met (certainly Kasparov 2001 never met
>>>>Fischer 1972), they had many common opponents, whose ratings where themselves
>>>>determined by common opponents, etc. There's no more reason to assume that
>>>>ratings in time are incomparable than to assume that ratings in the US and in
>>>>Europe are incomparable, for, although most games are in one region, there are
>>>>enough interregional games to give the ratings worldwide meaning.
>>>>
>>>>There are random fluctuations in the rating standard, because it's all
>>>>statistics, but the numbers are large, and I'm not aware of anything that would
>>>>cause ratings to systematically drift in any direction (actually this can be
>>>>simulated effectively, by creating a random population of players and slowly
>>>>change the pool over time and see if averages drift).
>>>>
>>>>Most strong players agree that the level of play is higher than 30 years ago,
>>>>and that's a good enough reason why today top ratings are higher.
>>>>
>>>>Fischer, Alekhine, Capablanca are of course classics, but so are Johnnie
>>>>Weissmuller and Jessie Owens, who would be today's also-rans. It is tempting to
>>>>say that this is because today our clocks run slower than in their time, but
>>>>they don't.
>>>>
>>>>Amir
>>>
>>>ELO said that ratings can be compared, one of the reasons he created this
>>>system.  Ofcourse you are right.  However, this will continue to be a debate.
>>>:)
>>
>>The argument is flawed.
>>
>>If players never died, were never added and never subtracted from the list then
>>the notion would work.
>>
>>Illustration:
>>
>>Take a pool of players where one guy is GM level and you have 1000 IM's.
>>
>>Let the pool stabilize.  You will see the GM with 100 ELO over the IM's.
>>
>
>The fly in your ointment is that the pool we are talking about is the FIDE pool
>with plenty of GM's.  They play each other, establish a rating that changes over
>time.  Some new players are added, some leave, but most are there for a while
>most of the time.  There is not a disconnect in the ratings pool and there is
>not one GM with lots of weaker players.  The ratings do provide a valid measure
>of strength.
>

No they do _not_

Two ratings provide an estimate of the outcome of a game between the two
players.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  The absolute value of the rating is
absolutely immaterial.  Of course, Elo pointed this out already.  But nobody
seems to listen.


>>Now add 10,000 patzers to the pool.
>>
>>Let the pool stabilize.  You will see the GM with 100 ELO over the IM's.
>>
>>However, both the GM and the IM's will have a big boost in their raw ELO score's
>>numeric value.
>>
>>Actually, the model has a lot of problems with it.  It has enough trouble just
>>trying to keep an accurate figure on the current crop of players.



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