Author: Chris Carson
Date: 11:22:27 06/03/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 03, 2002 at 14:11:05, Albert Silver wrote: >>We can compare strength across time and we can do studies to determine the >>effects of factors you listed above (they may have no effect or they may have a >>significant effect). We could also set up a study to determine if it is >>"easier" today. It may be, but I would need to see research on that before I >>would make that claim. Same for ratings inflation. > >It is fairly obvious there is rating inflation, and one need only look at the >system in place. Mind you, there has ALWAYS been rating inflation, but this has >worsened considerably since the FIDE rating limit was dropped to 2000. > >First, consider the old rule that existed until 10-12 years ago or so. This >wasn't the worst one, but it shows it clearly: a player who wins a tournament >cannot lose rating points, no matter the TPR. That was a rule. Inflation was the >result. > >The biggest one though is simply how one gets a FIDE rating. One needs to get it >in 4 game blocks. Games played against other non-FIDE rated players are not >considered. This means I can play an event with 9 rounds, score 2/9 with a TPR >of 1750 and yet get a FIDE block worth 2200. Why? because the 2 points were >against the FIDE rated players. Get another block or two (in case I can't get a >5-game block to complete the 9 games required) and presto! I'm 2200 FIDE with a >national rating of 1900. So the rating is based on measly 4-game TPRs, and note >just how big an error margin there is, notwithstanding the fact that these are >practically hand-selected games from a longer event. > >The first ratings are very often off by a margin, and almost always are off in >excess. I have personally seen many players who got initial FIDE ratings of 2300 >and then ended up giving away a good 100 points or so which ended up just >getting added to the pool. Mind you, the players who gave the ratings for those >initial 4-game blocks NEVER lose a point. So the ratings go only one way here. I >could lose 30 consecutive games against 1500-rated players and not have my FIDE >rating move an inch. I could play 5 games and give one of those 1500 rated >players a 2400 FIDE block and not lose a point. You see the issue. I see this >ALL the time. I played in a friendly match against another club in which their >top player was rated 2080 FIDE. At first that was all I knew, but when I heard >who it was, I laughed quite a bit. You see, the guy in question is rated about >1800-1850 on the national rating list, and has been so for the last 20 years at >least. He is passionate about the game, loves it, but isn't very strong and >there is _no_way_in_hell_ he is now playing 2080. I'd played him before and knew >what his game is like. It's simple: a genuine 2080 player plays and fights with >different weapons and the guy in question doesn't. Our latest game was no >exception. I have no doubt there will be a free-for-all with those rating points >of his if he decides to risk them in a full-fledged event, and I know of others >like him as well. > >The new ratings aren't always off by so much, but there is invariably a >difference, and that is added to every new rating included. When the lower >barrier was 2200, this effect was far slower, but by lowering it to 2000 it was >accelerated considerably. > >It never occured to me there was any doubt about inflation in ratings. > > Albert The only doubt is how much? Your points here are very much on target, however, how much is still the question?
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