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Subject: Re: Double blind and other controls against unconscious intentions

Author: Ed Schröder

Date: 15:58:02 09/11/02

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On September 11, 2002 at 17:36:44, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On September 11, 2002 at 09:02:32, Ed Schröder wrote:
>
>>On September 11, 2002 at 07:51:07, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>
>[...]
>
>>>Hope for peace
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Well, Thorsten achieved something remarkable tuning the Rebel parameters, both
>>his versions perform significant better than the default setting. So far I have,
>>
>>TC-051 : 51-35   59.2%   (+55 elo)
>>TC-056 : 43-34   55.8%   (+30 elo)
>>
>>Both matches are still in progress but I think the pattern is set.
>>
>>Well done Thorsten.
>>
>>Ed

>Without the exact data, the games, this remains an open question, Ed. Only the
>games can speak. The scores alone don't mean the same. The questions of the
>readers here are justified.

The matches are still running, so I can not present games yet.

I mainly posted this to show that Thorsten wasn't talking nonsense, if he would
I would say it too.

Ed


>Let me give an example from science. I think it was the Nobel prize laureate
>Monod from France who was involved with a terrible error in his laboratories.
>Hewas guilty of not having controlled good enough the work of his team members.
>What has happened? Well, the error was odd. His assistants had to count certain
>items, their frequency in certain solutions. As it could be proven some
>assistants counted the items almost always in wrongly enlarged format. How could
>this happen if the field with the items was very bright and therefore to be
>examined without difficulties? The answer shows a typical case in science, and
>therefore certain caution was invented. I remind you of the typically
>double-blind experimental setting of medical tests. That means that not only the
>clients know what they are given, but also the experimentor himself doesn't know
>what he's administering. Meaning placebo or not, medicament X or Y etc.
>Look, if these well educated and experienced scientists must respect a basic
>caution, it is very telling when Thorsten is simply believing that he has
>anything under control. If it were so easy, and if people could control their
>unconscious (!) preferences and intentions, we didn't need methods such as the
>double blind. It is simply a fact, that we can't control us, no matter how
>honest or educated we are. It is simply a human trait, that we are trying to
>support our own wishful thinking. So it's not a big surprise if Thorsten, or
>anyone else, gets the results he is working for. We could examine his results if
>we had the exact data. And also the complete data. Here Thorsten is taking
>refuge in making excuses. Perhaps the most complicated excuse is "his"
>creativity vs the mere "beancounting" of the uninspired... Here he becomes to
>resemble religious sect members. Simply because even if he is 100% right, we
>must have the data, the complete data, otherwise his results mean almost
>nothing. Not because people believe that Thorsten cheated or something, but
>simply because he himself is no longer able to differentiate objective and
>subjective. We know this, because everyone would be in the same difficulty if we
>experimented like Thorstenin our own kitchen or lab. Therefore the necessary
>control.
>
>(NB that the naivity of Thorsten is no proof for his unbalanced results. As I
>said these processes are working unconsciously. And nobody has control of theses
>processes, noprofessor and no Thorsten. I say that because some people will
>surely take my report as insultive to Thorsten which is not the case.)
>
>Of course we all could lean back and say "well, let's wait until Ed will publish
>the so-called Thorsten version", but then it will be a disadvantage for you and
>not only for Thorsten. Or you must have more data than the rest of us. But then
>Thorsten's posts were not ok.
>
>What comes to mind is this. With exception of the tournament that was on your
>webpage, Thorsten's tournaments always had CSTal in the leading ranks although
>CSTal was weaker than the truely leading progs. And likewise FRITZ always was in
>the middle of the ranking lists. This no surprise. It was a correct mirror of
>Thorsten's belief. FRITZ was always the dumb beancounter and CSTal the ingenious
>combinatory player. Strange that all others had FRITZ on the top and CSTal down
>below. Much stuff to think about I think.
>
>The next topic could be that _new_ versions of progs can always be tuned
>successfully against old progs. Doesn't prove much. Because the other way round
>it works the same way. It's a consequence of the weaknesses of today's progs.
>Either engine or book, or learning mode. Therefore BTW the justified question of
>Chessfun. Thorsten played many first games. Also here Thorsten gives a strange
>reply. He says that FRITZ itself is guilty. But that is something a tester
>shouldn't say. Doesn't look neutral such expression.
>
>I think we could find many more arguments, but the given might already convince
>you that the _complete_ data is very important. And the knowledge of the control
>mechanisms Thorsten had implemented.
>
>Rolf Tueschen



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