Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 04:24:42 09/27/02
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On September 27, 2002 at 07:15:52, Sune Fischer wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 06:57:57, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>This depends on what the candidate knows about the host, if he knows the host >>>knows, then he should expect 2/3 chance by switching >> >>Yes. But exactly that was the revealation I made. No big science at all, just a >>careful analysis of the historic data about Marilyn vos Savant. Nothing more >>nothing less. Please don't feel offended that I presented the case here in >>computer chess, I thought it could help many people to be more careful in stats >>and conclusions. >> > >Yes, but it is a little confusing because there are two 'you's there. >There is the "you" on stage that may know nothing, and the "you" who should >answer the question on behalf of the "you" on the stage. > >It is not clear what the "you" on stage knows about the host, i agree with that. > >But I don't see what it has to with doors opening or not, that must be a >different question I think. > >>. >>> >>>>In special the >>>>candidate could _not_ know if the host had opened a further door because he knew >>>>that no car was behind it. The text of the question does not allow to make a >>>>different conclusion. QED) >>> >>>But since you are the one that makes the decision, and you are fully informed by >>>the question, your answer should be to advice him to switch. >> >>Who is "you"? - The candidate was innocent. So how could he have a clue about >>the exact relations? That was my point. Only the psychological situation of the >>candidate mattered. Not the one of the host or ours or Marilyn's. Is this ok for >>you? > >Well I don't know about "psychological situation" part, but the information >regarding who knows what is important. The host must know, and the candidate >must know that the host knows. How could he? Please also read the following post: http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?254195 Already days ago I wrote it. Rolf Tueschen > >-S. > >>Rolf Tueschen >> >>> >>>However, since he loses nothing by switching and possibly gains better odds by a >>>switch, the answer should still be to switch, something he can figure out for >>>himself. >>> >>>-S. >>> >>>>Rolf Tueschen >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>>-S. >>>>>>Uri
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