Author: José Antônio Fabiano Mendes
Date: 11:06:42 10/24/02
http://www.clubkasparov.ru/club/oregon99_e.htm
What does a speed of 200 million positions per second imply in a chess machine?
Ken Thompson conducted some very interesting experiments in the 80s to correlate
depth of search with increase in playing strength. Thompson played Belle against
itself with one side computing progressively deeper. On an average a single ply
of search depth translated to around 200 Elo points - at four ply Belle was
playing around 1230, at nine ply it had reached 2328 Elo points. By extending
the curve, which flattens at the top end, one could conclude that a search depth
of 14 ply is required to achieve world championship strength (2800). Fisher
attained a career high of 2785, Karpov was at 2775 and I'm the only one
traversing 2800+ universe.
The conclusion of the experts: you need to build a computer that runs at one
billion nodes per second (and searches 14 ply deep) if you wish to challenge the
human world champion for his title. Deep Blue comes close, but isn't there quite
yet.
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