Author: Jesper Antonsson
Date: 06:53:37 10/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On October 26, 2002 at 17:10:27, Jorge Pichard wrote: >In your case, since you have a lot of patience I recommend to wait until the >Christmas of 2010, probabbly by then an Intel microchip might be as fast as the >Deep Blue that play against Kasparov in 1997. That may be a bit too optimistic (but not much). If the NPS doubles every 18 months, and today's single chip maximum is 1 millon NPS (perhaps it is closer to two?), then we have the following progression, in MNPS: 2002 1,0 2003 1,6 2004 2,5 2005 4,0 2006 6,3 2007 10,1 2008 16,0 2009 25,4 2010 40,3 2011 64,0 2012 101,6 2013 161,3 2014 256,0 2015 406,4 2016 645,1 2017 1024,0 I've read that Intel expect to sustain Moore's law at least until 2017. I'm a bit sceptical, but if true, we may reach one billion nodes per second on a single procesor machine somewhere around that point. What's a typical branching factor with null move? Three? Then we may be able to reach 6 ply deeper. That depth will make today's programs look like they're playing much more "positional" chess, even without enhancements. Perhaps even more frightening, in 2017, the machines will reach 1-2 ply deeper in bullet games than they reach with standard tournament time controls today.
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.