Computer Chess Club Archives




Subject: Statistical significance of a match result

Author: Rémi Coulom

Date: 07:51:35 11/23/02


I have just added a small utility to my web page. You give it the number of wins
and losses of a match, and it calculates the likelyhood that one player is best.
It comes with a short paper explaining how the calculation works. You can get it

I know someone else (sorry, I do not remember who) posted something similar some
time ago. I wanted to make my own and share it with everyone. The way it works
may sound a little naive to an expert in statistics. The technique I use
probably already has a scientific name, and there may be better ways to
implement it, but I am confident it is correct. I believe it is much better than
the Student's t-test that I have seen used in some scientific papers.


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