Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 13:43:45 02/27/03
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On February 27, 2003 at 15:57:04, Brian Richardson wrote: >As I recall, 5 years ago folks were saying only another 10-12 years for Moore's >Law speedups...now they are still saying another 10 years or so. I agree that >at some point physics will dictate limitations, but then there is more >parallelism. Sun just outlined plans for running 4 threads on each of 4 cores >on a single chip in the 3-5 year time frame. That would be roughly 16x. Both >Intel and IBM have similar plans to extend on-chip parallelism. >Bottom Line: Just as coding for 64 bits will become the norm soon, so will >coding for parallel searching with multiple threads. > >Brian If you look back over the past 5 years, I've said that a hundred times. "Moore's law" is definitely fading fast. But a "pseudo-moore's law" dealing only with performance, has a hope for quite a bit longer, but in the realm of parallel programming. N cpus on a chip has been done already. SMT is a different take on the same thing. A single chip with N cpus and M threads makes complete sense, although that will only extend the limit a few years, because you can't keep adding cpus without making the cpu die size requirement smaller. And that is what is coming to an end...
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