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Subject: Re: Introducing "No-Moore's Law"

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 13:43:45 02/27/03

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On February 27, 2003 at 15:57:04, Brian Richardson wrote:

>As I recall, 5 years ago folks were saying only another 10-12 years for Moore's
>Law speedups...now they are still saying another 10 years or so.  I agree that
>at some point physics will dictate limitations, but then there is more
>parallelism.  Sun just outlined plans for running 4 threads on each of 4 cores
>on a single chip in the 3-5 year time frame.  That would be roughly 16x.  Both
>Intel and IBM have similar plans to extend on-chip parallelism.
>Bottom Line:  Just as coding for 64 bits will become the norm soon, so will
>coding for parallel searching with multiple threads.
>
>Brian


If you look back over the past 5 years, I've said that a hundred times.
"Moore's law"
is definitely fading fast.  But a "pseudo-moore's law" dealing only with
performance,
has a hope for quite a bit longer, but in the realm of parallel programming.  N
cpus on
a chip has been done already.  SMT is a different take on the same thing.  A
single chip
with N cpus and M threads makes complete sense, although that will only extend
the
limit a few years, because you can't keep adding cpus without making the cpu die
size
requirement smaller.  And that is what is coming to an end...



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