Author: Ed Trice
Date: 16:21:35 12/31/03
Go up one level in this thread
Think about what a 2900 rating signifies: basically, you could spank a mere 2500 rated player indefinitely, never incurring a loss yourself. As it would play against 2600 or 2700 caliber players, losses would occur. Against 2800 rated opponents (pretty tough to find) a 2900 program would still finish ahead at the end of a long match. Before a program could make an honest claim at being 2900, I think the team would have to scrape up some money and get Gary Kasparov to play a 40 game match with it. The terms would have to be steep to get the most out of Gary, such as is he loses he could only play checkers from now on, and if he wins he gets to have Pamela Anderson for a year plus about $20 million in spending money. >All the top programs now are staggering compared to some years back, and >Shredder 8, and DFritz 8, seem about to be first and second. Even if something >else jumps up, like Ruffian or one of the known ones with a great new upgrade, >how much can we really expect something to outshine the others any more? > We already see that some of the previous greatest programmers, don't make the >very top anymore, and there is a decent margin between Shredder, Fritz, and all >the others. And it has never yet been seen that a program or human has passed >2850. So it will probably not happen! Certainly not 2900! > How could it happen? It would mean that simply no machine or human has a clue >as to what to do about that particular program. >Let's say that everything was done without all the bug problems, and the best of >what is possible, all in one program. The most it might reach might be >....according to ssdf....... 2900. Top humans will still understand things quite >a bit better than any machine, but will only need to be very careful and wise. >So machines will only be super, beyond human comprehension, in atleast 10 years >from now, if other computer potentialities are unleashed, which have not yet >been explored. Until then, they cannot surpass 2900, or human understanding. >So there's hardly any room left for a new program to be REALLY unimaginable, as >had been in the past. >OR? >S.Taylor
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