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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 18:03:26 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 21:01:57, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:24, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:04, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:45:47, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:32:35, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:30:56, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:26:56, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:19:48, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:27, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The Question does NOT concern "sensible" positions.. It concerns ALL Possible
>>>>>>>positions!
>>>>>>>What don't you understand?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>It's NOT an "assumption!"
>>>>>>>>>THAT, is YOUR error!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>YOUR Ass-umptions that follow are ludicrouos!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Not only is it demonstrably and obviously incorrect, the proper result is well
>>>>>>>>known and has been known for decades.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>CRAP!  Stop your biased Opinion and REFUTE my Statement!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I have already done it.  You simply don't understand it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Furthermore, no advanced mathematics are
>>>>>>>>needed to grasp it.  A simple junior high level understanding should be
>>>>>>>>sufficient.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Yeah.. well PROVE IT!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Already done
>>>>>>Q.E.D.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>You'd like to think so...
>>>>>NOT SO!
>>>>
>>>>I will explain it so that you will very easily understand.  Consider the game of
>>>>tic-tac-toe.
>>>>
>>>>There are 255,168 TTT games, and yet (modulo symmetries) there are only 765
>>>>possible achievable positions.
>>>>
>>>>If (for each of those positions) I know what move I should make (any best move
>>>>will do) then I have solved the game.  With a table of the 765 answers, whatever
>>>>move you make, I will make my answer move.
>>>>
>>>>See:
>>>>http://www.btinternet.com/~se16/hgb/tictactoe.htm
>>>>
>>>>Hence, the number of possible chess games is totally irrelevant.  The only thing
>>>>that matters is the number of possible chess positions.  Once I have computed my
>>>>oracle, I will know what to do no matter what the board looks like.
>>>>
>>>>It does not matter how many ways there are to achieve a position.  I only have
>>>>to know what to do once I get there.
>>>>
>>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>>[Round "-"]
>>>>[White "-"]
>>>>[Black "-"]
>>>>[Result "*"]
>>>>
>>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. Nb1 Nb8 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nb1 Nb8 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Nb1 Nb8 7. Nc3
>>>>Nc6 8. e3 e6
>>>>*
>>>>
>>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>>[Round "-"]
>>>>[White "-"]
>>>>[Black "-"]
>>>>[Result "*"]
>>>>
>>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. e3 e6
>>>>*
>>>
>>>You Dare comparing CHESS to Tic tac Toe? Or a LINE?
>>
>>I thought if I tried a simpler model you would understand it.  Obviously, I gave
>>you WAY too much credit.
>>
>>>To Prove an Idiotic assumption?
>>>The Last resort of a Knave...
>>>Give it UP!
>>>you are Lost in Fantasy... and wishful thinking!
>>
>>The games are the same.  Both are finite, zero sum games.  Chess is just a bit
>>deeper.
>>
>>About the same step apart as chess to go.
>>
>>But Go will also be solved.
>
>
>Sorry! Idiotic Nonsense!
>I thought you had some sense...
>I reverse my position!

You seem to be having some problem discussing using mathematics or logic.  I am
glad to see that you have finally reversed your position though.



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