Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 18:01:57 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:24, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:04, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:45:47, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:32:35, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:30:56, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:26:56, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:19:48, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:27, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The Question does NOT concern "sensible" positions.. It concerns ALL Possible
>>>>>>positions!
>>>>>>What don't you understand?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>It's NOT an "assumption!"
>>>>>>>>THAT, is YOUR error!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>YOUR Ass-umptions that follow are ludicrouos!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Not only is it demonstrably and obviously incorrect, the proper result is well
>>>>>>>known and has been known for decades.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>CRAP!  Stop your biased Opinion and REFUTE my Statement!
>>>>>
>>>>>I have already done it.  You simply don't understand it.
>>>>>
>>>>>> Furthermore, no advanced mathematics are
>>>>>>>needed to grasp it.  A simple junior high level understanding should be
>>>>>>>sufficient.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Yeah.. well PROVE IT!
>>>>>
>>>>>Already done
>>>>>Q.E.D.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>You'd like to think so...
>>>>NOT SO!
>>>
>>>I will explain it so that you will very easily understand.  Consider the game of
>>>tic-tac-toe.
>>>
>>>There are 255,168 TTT games, and yet (modulo symmetries) there are only 765
>>>possible achievable positions.
>>>
>>>If (for each of those positions) I know what move I should make (any best move
>>>will do) then I have solved the game.  With a table of the 765 answers, whatever
>>>move you make, I will make my answer move.
>>>
>>>See:
>>>http://www.btinternet.com/~se16/hgb/tictactoe.htm
>>>
>>>Hence, the number of possible chess games is totally irrelevant.  The only thing
>>>that matters is the number of possible chess positions.  Once I have computed my
>>>oracle, I will know what to do no matter what the board looks like.
>>>
>>>It does not matter how many ways there are to achieve a position.  I only have
>>>to know what to do once I get there.
>>>
>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>[Round "-"]
>>>[White "-"]
>>>[Black "-"]
>>>[Result "*"]
>>>
>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. Nb1 Nb8 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nb1 Nb8 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Nb1 Nb8 7. Nc3
>>>Nc6 8. e3 e6
>>>*
>>>
>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>[Round "-"]
>>>[White "-"]
>>>[Black "-"]
>>>[Result "*"]
>>>
>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. e3 e6
>>>*
>>
>>You Dare comparing CHESS to Tic tac Toe? Or a LINE?
>
>I thought if I tried a simpler model you would understand it.  Obviously, I gave
>you WAY too much credit.
>
>>To Prove an Idiotic assumption?
>>The Last resort of a Knave...
>>Give it UP!
>>you are Lost in Fantasy... and wishful thinking!
>
>The games are the same.  Both are finite, zero sum games.  Chess is just a bit
>deeper.
>
>About the same step apart as chess to go.
>
>But Go will also be solved.


Sorry! Idiotic Nonsense!
I thought you had some sense...
I reverse my position!



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.