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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 21:50:00 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 22:07:58, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 21:33:06, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:17:58, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:58:47, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>>>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>>>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>>>>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>>>>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>>>>>full tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>The problem is that the number of nodes in the full tree is bigger than the
>>>>>number of positions because the same position can happen in many branches of the
>>>>>tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>Even with perfect order of moves you cannot solve KRB vs KR by alpha beta with
>>>>>sqrt(2^30) nodes.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I think you are on my side...
>>>>;)
>>>
>>>I disagree both with you and Dann.
>>>
>>>If you want to generate tablebases you cannot use sqrt like Dan suggest.
>>>If you want to analyze possibility in games then sqrt is enough.
>>>
>>>In case that there are 10^120 games and 10^40 positions then chess can be solved
>>>by sqrt(10^120) nodes or by 10^40 nodes
>>
>>
>>A NODE, IS a Position! Correct?
>
>Node is a position that is searched by the chess engine.
>
>>
>>If there are 10^120 Games.. then 'every move' in those 10^120 games ARE
>>Positions.
>
>Yes but not all of them are different so it is possible that there are only
>10^40 different positions in a tree of 10^120 positions.
>
>There are too way to try to solve chess
>
>1)search(in this case you may search the same node in a lot of branches and you
>search both 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d6 or 1.e4 d6 2.e4 e6 or 1.d4 e6 2.e4 d6 or 1.d4 d6
>2.e4 e6)
>
>In 4 plies you can get the same position 4 times and in 80 plies that are 40
>moves you may get it trillions of times in different branches of the tree.
>
>In tree alpha beta help to get sqrt of the number of games but it is not a good
>idea to solve chess.
>
>2)tablebases that seems a better idea and the problem is that today there is not
>enough memory.
>
>In this case you do not build a tree.
>
>you look at all the position first time and mark all the mates.
>you look at all the position second time and mark all positions that you can get
>mate in 1(position that is already marked)
>
>you look at all the position and mark all the positions that you cannot prevent
>mate in 1(every move will need to position that is marked as mate in 1)
>
>There is no mate in 5000 because of the 50 move rule.
>so after repeating this process 10,000 times you can continue stop it and every
>position was searched only 10,000 times.
>
>This means that if the number of positions is 10^40 then time of searching
>10^40*10,000 positions is going to be enough but you need also memory of 10^40
>positions and this is the another problem with using this solution today.
>
>I do not know if we will be able to use memory of 10^40 positions or search
>10^44 nodes in the next 100 years but I cannot say that I am sure that it is
>impossible.
>
>10^40 positions is only an estimate and I do not know the exact number of
>positions.
>
>I remember that I proved that it is less than 10^50 and even less than 10^47 in
>the past by a computer program that counted the number of possible positions for
>every possible material configuration and part of the positions that I counted
>are also illegal because both kings are in check so the estimate of 10^40 seems
>to me a good estimate.
>
>Uri


Argue with Dr. Hyatt, Dr. John Nunn & Frederick Freidel!

THEY agree with ME!



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