Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 15:00:29 05/31/99
Go up one level in this thread
On May 30, 1999 at 10:04:41, blass uri wrote: >More than 70% of the voters say that deep blue chip will not have more than 2800 >ssdf rating. > >In other words top programs on pentium200 can expect more than 20% against it. > >I abstained in the opinion poll because I do not know if to believe Hsu's >results of 38:2 of weaker version(deep blue Junior) or to believe my impression >based on public games that deep blue Junior is not so strong. > >Deep blue Junior lost against 24xx player in 15 minutes per game and drew >against another not strong player. > >Deep blue Junior won most of the games but every commercial could do the same. > >Uri Let me tell you a short 'story' to explain why such 'polls' are useless. Several years ago, I posted a query in r.g.c (before it was split) about Cray Blitz and a 'sparring opponent' asking for advice on which program or dedicated machine to buy to use as a test opponent when tuning Cray Blitz for a tournament (ACM). Most everyone said 'get genius... you won't have a chance against it, the commercial programs are so much stronger than your program, because all you have is horsepower, not 'algorithms'. The argument went on for a good while. I got genius, ran it on the 486/66 (fastest PC available at the time) and played several matches against Cray Blitz. I started at 5 minute games, but after Cray Blitz was 10-0 ahead, I gave up. I then reduced Cray Blitz to 1 cpu (rather than 16) which effectively slowed it by a factor of 12. It won 20 in a row. I then gave genius 30 minutes per game, cray blitz 5. It won the next 10. Now 40 in a row, no draws or losses. All games were absolute tactical busts. I finally got closer when I I gave genius a 30:1 time handicap and only let CB use 1 cpu to boot. Overall a 30*12 : 1 handicap. And at that handicap, out of the next 10 games, CB won 7, drew 1 and actually lost 1. The "poll" happened because _nobody_ knew anything about Cray Blitz. They "assumed" (by listening to others that also didn't know, but who weren't afraid to act like they did) that the CB guys didn't know what we were doing. It became pretty apparent that we _did_. Does this story sound familiar? IE flash forward to DB and today? It tore hell out of the best commercial programs at a 100:1 time handicap. Yet no one thought it would have a chance even slowed down to 'equal' speed. The problem is that no one is listening to Hsu. No one wants to listen to Hsu. Everyone wants to believe that their precious microcomputers are 'close' to DB. It ain't so. It ain't even _close_ to being so. That from someone that knows what DB does, and what Crafty Does, and how Crafty, DB and the commercials fit together on the rating scale...
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