Author: Peter Hegger
Date: 10:21:14 07/16/99
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On July 15, 1999 at 23:01:18, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On July 15, 1999 at 18:02:00, KarinsDad wrote: > >>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>[snip] >>>> >>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>>Regards >>>>Peter >>> >>> >>>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>>was "done" I think... >> >>However, the question was "In what year do you think a computer chess program >>will be able to defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?". >> >>Since that did not happen in 1998 (regardless of reason), the question is still >>valid, but your answer is not. >> >>So, when DO you predict that a program WILL beat a world champion in a 20 game >>40/2 match? >> >>KarinsDad :) > >if we discount Deep Blue, I would probably guess maybe 2010 as a first chance, >although this likely won't be a simple microcomputer program. If Hsu delivers >his deep blue in a PC suit, I'd cut that to no more than 5 years from now. If >we talk about commercial microprocessor 'desktop' machines only, I'd likely say >2020. Bob, some time ago you stated that when DB jr. is released as a 4 or 8 processor PCI card (supposedly in the next year or two) that it would be *atleast* 400 rating points stronger than any micro program currently available. Would not such a set up smoke Kasparov in the hypothetical 2O game 40/2 match?
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