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Subject: Re: ply search vs elo rating - proposed formula

Author: Jeremiah Penery

Date: 16:27:26 10/20/99

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On October 20, 1999 at 16:27:23, Joshua Lee wrote:

>>>>>This would yield the following results:
>>>>>
>>>>>Ply     Elo Rating
>>>>>===     ==========
>>>>>
>>>>>2       1098
>>>>>4       1386
>>>>>6       1635
>>>>>8       1855
>>>>>10      2052

> ????????? Awhile back i posted where hiarcs played the exact first 6 moves of > two different IM's for whites first six moves and blacks first 5, this is too > low.

Hiarcs searches exactly 10-ply?  Also, just because 6 moves were the same, does
not mean _all_ the moves were the same.  Further, these numbers were figured
using K=0.15 for the chess-knowledge.  Hiarcs may have either more or less, and
so it is impossible to tell actual numbers for any program.

>>>>>12      2230
>>>>>14      2392

> Again this is too low Deep Blue was atleast 2650 searching 14ply

Deep Blue did not search only 14-ply.  It did 14-ply brute-force, plus 30+ ply
of extensions in most of the interesting lines.  Not to mention that DB would
probably have a K-value of greater than 0.15, which would make all the ratings
on this list go up for each depth.  However, I suspect that the ratings may
level out a bit at the top, because the maximum theoretical ELO rating is
somewhere around 3000, I believe.

>>>>>16      2542
>>>>>18      2680

> That makes these atleast 300 or more elo points too low

See above.

>>>>>20      2809
>>>>>22      2929

>Otherwise good idea rework the numbers and we have a good indicator of strength
>vs ply.
>also at 1 ply Hiarcs was winning 3 out of 4 games against me so maybe at 1 ply
>it is 1700 but again this is all relative to the time control. Are we talking
>3min per move?

Again, 1-ply doesn't necessarily mean exactly 1-ply.  It means 'at least' one
ply.  There are always extensions and quiescence search to achieve greater
apparent depth.

Jeremiah



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