Author: Chris Whittington
Date: 04:45:44 11/05/97
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On November 05, 1997 at 07:10:19, Bas Hamstra wrote: >[Chance best program wins tournament] > >>>1) With the number of rounds at the WMCC, what was the actual probablity >>>that the best chess program would win the tournament? >> >>Well, I suppose that depends on how much better the best chess program >>is compared to all the others... Let's say that the best program is >>72 points better (this converts to a 60% chance to win each game) than >>the other 33 entries. A quick back of the envelope calculation with >>lots of simplifying assumptions shows that the chance of the stronger >>program winning the tournament is about 10%, nothing like the 80% >>you'd like. Urrrgghhhhhh. What is this maths ? From Alice in Wonderland ? Methinks the general problem is that of chasing the holy grail of the 'strongest' program. Maybe there is no such thing ? If you find it it runs away and becomes another version ? > >Thank you. I suspect in your calculation the winner must win all games? >That isn't necesarrily the case of course, but it gives an indication. >Anyway I'd appreciate it if you would e-mail me the calculation. Hm, 10% >would be no less than a lottery indeed. This is silly. Obviously Junior is a strong program. You can probably say that Ananse is a weak program. What do you want, everything pinned down to 50 decimal places ? This is KK mathematical logic, only allowed on rgcc :) Chris Whittington > > >Regards, >Bas Hamstra.
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