Author: Bas Hamstra
Date: 04:10:19 11/05/97
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[Chance best program wins tournament] >>1) With the number of rounds at the WMCC, what was the actual probablity >>that the best chess program would win the tournament? > >Well, I suppose that depends on how much better the best chess program >is compared to all the others... Let's say that the best program is >72 points better (this converts to a 60% chance to win each game) than >the other 33 entries. A quick back of the envelope calculation with >lots of simplifying assumptions shows that the chance of the stronger >program winning the tournament is about 10%, nothing like the 80% >you'd like. Thank you. I suspect in your calculation the winner must win all games? That isn't necesarrily the case of course, but it gives an indication. Anyway I'd appreciate it if you would e-mail me the calculation. Hm, 10% would be no less than a lottery indeed. Regards, Bas Hamstra.
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