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Subject: Re: Statistical methods and their consequences

Author: Tony Hedlund

Date: 02:24:43 02/15/03

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On February 14, 2003 at 16:27:31, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On February 14, 2003 at 13:32:16, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>
>>On February 14, 2003 at 09:27:26, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>
>>>On February 14, 2003 at 08:43:12, Bob Durrett wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Excellent points.  The "bottom line" is that SSDF presented their findings
>>>>properly, but the problem is in interpretation.  SSDF cannot be held responsible
>>>>for errors in interpretation.
>>>>
>>>>Bob D.
>>>
>>>
>>>Wrong conclusion. I tried to explain the points but apparently it's a bit too
>>>difficult. In short : If you use a system of statistics you are not allowed to
>>>make your own presentation. The presentation by SSDF is FALSE. That is the
>>>point. False and unallowed. Instead of 1., 2., 3., they should say 1.-3., not
>>>should, but must, if the differences in the actual results are way smaller than
>>>the error in the tests itself. Is that impossible to understand?
>>>
>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>
>>Then the right presentation is:
>>
>>1-10 Shredder 7         2801-2737
>>1-10 Deep Fritz 7       2789-2732
>>1-11 Fritz 7            2770-2711
>>1-2? Shredder 7 UCI     2761-2638
>>1-15 Chess Tiger 15     2753-2700
>>1-15 Shredder 6 Pad UCI 2750-2703
>>1-16 Shredder 6         2750-2689
>>1-19 Chess Tiger 14     2744-2684
>>1-19 Deep Fritz         2741-2680
>>1-19 Gambit Tiger 2     2739-2681
>>3-2? Junior 7           2715-2659
>>4-2? Hiarcs 8           2707-2657
>>
>>and so on.
>>
>>Tony
>
>Thanks for the fine joke, Tony. Perhaps you lay your figer into the wound!
>You want to have a number one, right? Then you make tests, just like you do,
>fair and correct. And then you come into the period where you must evaluate your
>results. You see that you have no clear umber one. Now two possibilities:
>
>1) You go on into decisive mode and do further tests, the "list" date can wait.
>
>2) You stay to your traditions and show up with your list. But then, please, do
>NOT present the list either in the classical way, nor in your joking Mr. Bean
>version, but simply make such packages:
>
>1.-3. A B C
>4.-5. D E
>6.    F
>7.-10. G H I
>etc.
>
>Tell me please, where the problem is with this method?

Why just three strongest engines? With the margin of errors Gambit Tiger 2 could
be as strong as the other top engines. I find Mr. Bean's version more logic then
yours. Could you please explain your method further.

>Is it because you have
>kind of strong wish to present a umber one by all means?

Do you also think that FIDE shouldn't have a number one on there list? Is
Kasparov really the best player?

>Please let's simply
>discuss this little topic. If you tell me, listen, Rolf, I am not allowed to
>tell you, but you are right, that a umber one prog is very important for us.

It seem to be more important to others.

>Then, Tony, I am out of the debate, because I had great respect for your amateur
>approach. Comps are not cheap either. etc. To make it clear. I would not oppose
>sponsering. But if you said, but Rolf, look, we have a real number one! That is
>the exact result of our statistics. - Then however, I will continue to ask
>polite questions.

The exact result of our statistics is the way Mr. Bean interpret the list.

Tony

>Rolf Tueschen



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