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Subject: Re: Statistical methods and their consequences

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 04:12:10 02/15/03

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On February 15, 2003 at 05:24:43, Tony Hedlund wrote:

>On February 14, 2003 at 16:27:31, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>
>>On February 14, 2003 at 13:32:16, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>>
>>>On February 14, 2003 at 09:27:26, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>
>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 08:43:12, Bob Durrett wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Excellent points.  The "bottom line" is that SSDF presented their findings
>>>>>properly, but the problem is in interpretation.  SSDF cannot be held responsible
>>>>>for errors in interpretation.
>>>>>
>>>>>Bob D.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Wrong conclusion. I tried to explain the points but apparently it's a bit too
>>>>difficult. In short : If you use a system of statistics you are not allowed to
>>>>make your own presentation. The presentation by SSDF is FALSE. That is the
>>>>point. False and unallowed. Instead of 1., 2., 3., they should say 1.-3., not
>>>>should, but must, if the differences in the actual results are way smaller than
>>>>the error in the tests itself. Is that impossible to understand?
>>>>
>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>
>>>Then the right presentation is:
>>>
>>>1-10 Shredder 7         2801-2737
>>>1-10 Deep Fritz 7       2789-2732
>>>1-11 Fritz 7            2770-2711
>>>1-2? Shredder 7 UCI     2761-2638
>>>1-15 Chess Tiger 15     2753-2700
>>>1-15 Shredder 6 Pad UCI 2750-2703
>>>1-16 Shredder 6         2750-2689
>>>1-19 Chess Tiger 14     2744-2684
>>>1-19 Deep Fritz         2741-2680
>>>1-19 Gambit Tiger 2     2739-2681
>>>3-2? Junior 7           2715-2659
>>>4-2? Hiarcs 8           2707-2657
>>>
>>>and so on.
>>>
>>>Tony
>>
>>Thanks for the fine joke, Tony. Perhaps you lay your figer into the wound!
>>You want to have a number one, right? Then you make tests, just like you do,
>>fair and correct. And then you come into the period where you must evaluate your
>>results. You see that you have no clear umber one. Now two possibilities:
>>
>>1) You go on into decisive mode and do further tests, the "list" date can wait.
>>
>>2) You stay to your traditions and show up with your list. But then, please, do
>>NOT present the list either in the classical way, nor in your joking Mr. Bean
>>version, but simply make such packages:
>>
>>1.-3. A B C
>>4.-5. D E
>>6.    F
>>7.-10. G H I
>>etc.
>>
>>Tell me please, where the problem is with this method?
>
>Why just three strongest engines? With the margin of errors Gambit Tiger 2 could
>be as strong as the other top engines. I find Mr. Bean's version more logic then
>yours. Could you please explain your method further.


SSDF has good statistics experts. Consult these experts and you will understand
why Gambit Tiger 2 could NOT be number one. My first three was a pool where all
could be number one. Only Shredder 7 UCI could be included, but my example was
more a demonstration of such a list. It's not MY method. It's simply what
careful researchers would do if they had your results. Perhaps you don't know
it, Tony, but the presentation of the results must have a base in the results.
In other words it might well be that one day you will have a clear number one.
Or do you believe that your method guarantees the eternal status quo?



>
>>Is it because you have
>>kind of strong wish to present a umber one by all means?
>
>Do you also think that FIDE shouldn't have a number one on there list? Is
>Kasparov really the best player?

Please do not seek for outside help, when you run out of arguments in favor of
your own presentation.


>
>>Please let's simply
>>discuss this little topic. If you tell me, listen, Rolf, I am not allowed to
>>tell you, but you are right, that a umber one prog is very important for us.
>
>It seem to be more important to others.

Yes, that was my deeper assumption. Could you give more details?

Rolf Tueschen






>
>>Then, Tony, I am out of the debate, because I had great respect for your amateur
>>approach. Comps are not cheap either. etc. To make it clear. I would not oppose
>>sponsering. But if you said, but Rolf, look, we have a real number one! That is
>>the exact result of our statistics. - Then however, I will continue to ask
>>polite questions.
>
>The exact result of our statistics is the way Mr. Bean interpret the list.
>
>Tony
>
>>Rolf Tueschen



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