Author: Terry McCracken
Date: 06:21:04 03/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On March 27, 2002 at 07:20:09, Chessfun wrote: >On March 26, 2002 at 11:31:45, Terry McCracken wrote: > >>On March 26, 2002 at 10:42:19, Chris Carson wrote: >> >>>On March 26, 2002 at 09:30:46, Terry McCracken wrote: >>> >>>>On March 26, 2002 at 07:34:46, Chris Carson wrote: >>>> >>>>>On March 26, 2002 at 04:33:14, Daniel Clausen wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On March 26, 2002 at 00:35:44, Slater Wold wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>[snip] >>>>>> >>>>>>>Whether or not I believe computers play GM strength chess is no matter here. >>>>>>>What matters is that people who have given 30+ years to this field have more of >>>>>>>a right to an opinion than you *EVER* will. >>>>>> >>>>>>I don't think that he is more entitled of an opinion than any other here. The >>>>>>difference between what Bob says and some other says is that he does it in a >>>>>>scientific way. >>>>>> >>>>>>Jerry (among others) seem to be very emotional about this matter (which is not >>>>>>necessarily a bad thing) and are so fixed on their opinion, no matter what. They >>>>>>don't have the patience to collect enough data points before making a claim. >>>>>>Also they're not very critical when coming up with examples which 'prove' their >>>>>>'obvious claim'. Ie Mr Ballicora pointed out some things why some/most GMs are >>>>>>not _that_ interested in playing against computers and therefore don't take it >>>>>>as seriously as playing vs humans. These things have to be taken into >>>>>>consideration, as well as many other things. >>>>>> >>>>>>Sadly, many (if not most) people fail to think that way and prefer the >>>>>>unscientific way. Computers showed very impressive performances over the years >>>>>>without us inventing new ones w/o enough data to support them. >>>>>> >>>>>>Sargon >>>>> >>>>>Careful about Science vs Faith. There is plenty of data points to prove the >>>>>strength of computers vs humans. I work in the field of human behavior research >>>>>for a living, no ties to the commercial programs and have studied Human vs >>>>>Computers for a long time (many years). I do not care what the strength of a >>>>>program is (higher or lower), however, they have proven themselves to be >>>>>significant and at a 2700+ level on hardware that can be purchased for under >>>>>$2,000. >>>>> >>>>>Humans must perform significantly better than the top programs over a period of >>>>>200 games or more before you can say with any scientific certainty that they are >>>>>below 2700. The programs have proven themselves to be very strong over a large >>>>>number of games at 40/2 (even more at faster time controls). These games must >>>>>be in open viewing competition, tournament rules with an arbitrator. >>>>> >>>>>Ofcourse everyone has the same entitlement to an opinion (based on faith). I >>>>>hope the GM's do better, I have faith that humans can adapt quicker than a >>>>>static program on static hw, however, science and a lot of data show that the >>>>>top programs are 2700+ and are very dangerous opponents and they will only get >>>>>better with improved s/w and faster hardware. >>>> >>>>As a scientist I don't know how you can claim factually computers and software >>>>of today perform over 2700 at 40/2 T/C's. Unless we're talking about Deeper >>>>Blue, then I would tend to agree but not with absolute certainty. >>>> >>>>The "Verdict" is not "Out" yet and this attitude, can lead to premature >>>>conclusions. It's damaging. >>>> >>>>This is what happened with Deeper Blue in '97 and has fudged the science. >>>>Deeper Blues' win over Kasparov happened before it's time due to many reasons >>>>and "Pure Science" got second spot. >>>> >>>>The public and media are "Ignorant" even the "Business" people at IBM, except to >>>>"Turn a Buck", but the best players and even experts "Understood" why Kasparov >>>>really lost and it wasn't due to Deeper Blue bieng the better player. >>>> >>>>Believe it or not except for game 6 which hardly could be considered chess for >>>>obvious reasons, Kasparov outplayed Deeper Blue. >>>> >>>>I'm not going to re-hash the details. It's been discussed far too many times >>>>here already and people seem to remain unconvinced. Too bad. >>>> >>>>Until computers play thousands of games against GM's at 40/2 T/C's for "High >>>>Stakes" then much of the data is questionable. >>>> >>>>Much of the data you're refering to has holes all through it and is not >>>>convincing. >>>> >>>>Terry >>> >>>Thousands of games are not needed. Medium effect size with power .8 single >>>tailed only requires 52 subjects, even if the effect size was small (and it is >>>clear that it is not), then only a couple of hundred games would be needed. >>>This yeilds a confidence of 95%. >>> >>>There are plenty of games. >> >>There are plenty of games at ICC where GM's and IM's are still winning more than >>losing to comps. > >Please name just one. The most well known Roman himself under the Jrlok handle >has a score of +1 =0 -5 against Rebelrex. > >Sarah. Those are biltz games, and if 3/0 them bullet, and comps. are better at bullet then almost anyone! Why should I do all the searches, it is up to people who claim that comps. are indeed better than all humans except for the top ten or so IE 2700+ in the world on (PC's no less) to prove it not me. 1 Kasparov, Garry g RUS 2838 13.04.63 M 2 Kramnik, Vladimir g RUS 2809 25.06.75 M 3 Fischer, Robert J g USA 2780 M i 4 Anand, Viswanathan g IND 2757 11.12.69 M 5 Morozevich, Alexander g RUS 2742 18.07.77 M 6 Adams, Michael g ENG 2742 17.11.71 M 7 Topalov, Veselin g BUL 2739 15.03.75 M 8 Ponomariov, Ruslan g UKR 2727 11.10.83 M 9 Ivanchuk, Vassily g UKR 2717 18.03.69 M 10 Kamsky, Gata g USA 2717 02.06.74 M i 11 Shirov, Alexei g ESP 2715 04.07.72 M 12 Leko, Peter g HUN 2713 08.09.79 M 13 Gelfand, Boris g ISR 2708 24.06.68 M 14 Bareev, Evgeny g RUS 2707 21.11.66 M 15 Smirin, Ilia g ISR 2702 21.01.68 M "Extraordinary Claims need Extraoridinary Evidence"! Terry
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