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Subject: Re: A Prediction of 40 Years Ago

Author: Mike S.

Date: 22:39:42 04/25/02

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On April 26, 2002 at 01:16:31, Dana Turnmire wrote:

>(...)
>I don't know what "superspeed" meant back in 1963 but it seems that in the near
>future a simple desktop computer with a 50$ chess program will be able to take
>on the human world champion and win.  Sad to me.

Although I'm probably one of the biggest admirers of computerchess, I think OTOH
that the human World Champion will still be stronger, at least for a medium
period of time, 10...20 years maybe. It could happen that one match is lost, but
I think the next (re-)match could be won by the human competitor again as well.

People tend to be a bit "pessimistic", because programs achieve 2700+
performances. But there's still a big step to do towards World Champ level, in a
long match at long thinking time... this won't come so soon IMO. Those last
steps are most probably much steeper than i.e. from 1900 to 2500, I assume.

Another question is, if a chess computer will ever be given the chance to fight
for the real championship in terms of the, or an, human championship (FIDE or
not isn't so important to me). For example, there's the Kramnik-Fritz match -
but the "real" World Championships are something else which goes parallel.

Regards,
M.Scheidl



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