Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 04:10:40 02/14/03
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Just to explain some basics for new readers, I show why the whole List is worthless. The rankings are by chance the way they are presented. Since only a few here have basic knowledge in statistics I explain the most apparet things. We are told that for instance the two first programs are seperated by 8 points. No matter Stefan get all the credits here for his first place. But is true that Shredder is stronger than Fritz? Here I must tell you that we simply don't know it. The SSDF pretend to know it, but it is NOT true. How can I say such things? Easy! Look at the deviations. These numbers with + or -. We see that most programs have an expected Elo number varying plus/mius of about 30 points! Note, that the Elo minus 5 is as probable as the fially given Elo for the ranking! If you then take a look at the Elo of the opponents in the far right you can see that even for the top programs the SSDF was unable to create equal conditions. Also this influence by different opponents makes the 8 numbers difference at the top meaningless. In sum we can say that the SSDF failed to show - exactly what they pretend to show - the differences between the actual top programs. The SSDF presents a new leader, but that is against its own results! So that the conclusion is allowed that SSDF makes deliberately their own new number 1! (Note please that this is not a political speech, however it is what statistics demands. The SSDF got this critic so often in the past but they still did't change their experimental setting.) Rolf Tueschen
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