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Subject: Re: Introducing "No-Moore's Law"

Author: Jeremiah Penery

Date: 14:52:48 02/28/03

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On February 28, 2003 at 11:46:24, Matt Taylor wrote:

>The newest Intel process is 90 nanometers. I remember them talking about ways

90nm isn't in production yet.

to
>hit 30 nanometers. They are -fast- approaching a width of 1 atom.

30nm isn't going to happen in the next few years.  And 30nm still isn't close to
the width of a single atom.  IBM has demonstrated 6nm transistors.

>If you have read much about Quantum computing, it is useless for many
>applications. Quantum computing is useful only for highly parallel problems.

For many problems, parallel algorithms can be devised to replace the serial ones
that run well on today's computers.

>Quantum computers run at ridiculously low speeds right now -- a few Hz.

Key words being "right now".  The forerunners of today's computers didn't run
any faster, and technology is accelerating.

>Aggressive estimates are viable quantum computers in about 20 years.

And?

>DNA computing is likewise a parallel paradigm and does not address -many-
>problems.

See above.

There are plenty of other options for high-performance computing that don't
exist today.  I wouldn't be surprised to see asynchronous chips being seriously
considered soon.  The clock-based approach is beginning to cause lots of
problems as speed is agressively increased.



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