Author: Omid David Tabibi
Date: 23:22:44 07/21/03
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On July 22, 2003 at 00:04:58, Dann Corbit wrote: >On July 21, 2003 at 23:50:38, Omid David Tabibi wrote: > >>On July 21, 2003 at 23:47:12, Derek Paquette wrote: >> >>>Hey, while I agree it would cost A LOT >>>i have to disagree with you on the point that it "isn't" possible. >>>While all wins might seem crazy, >>>If 15 million dollars was invested into it, >>>a machine that dwarfed deep blue, >>>with much larger openning books, (only 4000 lines for deep blue, and people >>>think DJ8 that has hundreds of thousands was just as strong? dont' get that, but >>>neway) >>> >>> >>>if its looking at a TRUE 20 ply ahead, I don't see how it could lose with that >>>much invested. >> >>It will lose very rarely, but will still draw quite frequently... > >Let's suppose that though a titanic bucket of money, the speed of Deep Blue were >increased thusly: > >Per-CPU speedup 100x (already achieved 10x, I think -- 100x should be doable) >CPU number increase 10x (480 to 4,800) > >so we have 1000x power increase. That would correspond to about 10 doublings in >power. >That would be 500 ELO. How did you calculate this? Assuming a branching factor of 3, log(1000)/log(3) is about 6 plies. 6 additional plies will increase the strength significantly, but not more than 200 Elo in my opinion (diminishing returns, etc). Computers are already stronger than humans in tactics, so 6 additional plies will just be an overkill. On the other hand, those 6 additional plies will hardly make up for the program's inferior positional understanding in comparison to humans. >Let's say that really Kasparov was 100 ELO better than Deep Blue 2, but due to >lack of familiarity and various mistakes it did not show through. Then Deep >Blue 3 would have a 400 ELO advantage. > >In such a scenario, Kasparov will win 9% of the points. Not even much room for >draws in that 9%. Now, add in software improvements, a ten million dollar >opening book and 7 man tablebase files totally in memory. > >I think it might blank the strongest player in the world. But I may be totally >wrong, too.
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