Author: Uri Blass
Date: 09:27:15 10/29/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 29, 2004 at 11:02:48, James T. Walker wrote: >Uri you are still grasping at straws to save your argument. You claim to be a >logical person yet your argument is not logical at all. The only logical thing >you have said is that someone who scores 1/2 point should be higher than someone >who scores 0 points. That is logical and it is also true in the real world. >(Forget the link you pointed to) Also in the real world when the USCF >calculates a provisional formula a minimum of 4 games is required I think. They >also slightly modify the formula after about 8 or 10 games to weight later games >slightly higher than early games. This is because experience shows that first >time players are usually more nervous and do not play up to par in their first >tournament (usually). There is no reasonable argument that someone who lost his >first 4 games is better/worse than someone who lost his first 12 games. They >may in fact be identical. More data is required and that is why the >"provisional" tag is applied. This seems to be a paradigm that you can't get >over. >Jim I will try to explain last time but maybe I do a bad job in explaining. Let assume that every player play 12 games against 1400 players I want to give an estimate for the level of the player based on the result after 4 games. part of the players who score 0 out of 4 will score more than 0 out of 12 A good estimate remain the same in average when you play more games(it becomes higher for players who do more than expected but also becomes smaller for players who do less than expected). If your estimate based on 0/4 is the same as your estimate in case of 0/12 it means that players who score 0/4 can only improve their rating after they play more games and it is not logical. The average level of players who score 0/12 is lower than the average level of players who scored 0/4 because players who scored 0/4 consist also players who can expect to score results like 1/12. Uri
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