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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 17:09:36 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:11, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 19:45:49, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:41:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>
>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>
>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>
>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>about.
>>>>
>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>
>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>
>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>Question.
>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>
>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>
>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>
>>>Mathematics will not tell you if it is practically possible to solve chess.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>
>>>>THINK!
>>>>
>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>
>>>Yes but you do not need to analyze everyone of them and no program does it.
>>>
>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white.
>>>
>>>The number of possible games of 3 plies is more than 8000.
>>>The number of possible positions that you get after 3 plies is smaller because
>>>1.e4 e6 2.d4 is identical to 1.d4 e6 2.e4
>>>
>>>
>>> Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few.
>>>
>>>No
>>>
>>>The number of possible games is higher than 10^120
>>
>>
>>Give or take a few...
>>
>>
>>>
>>>The number of total positions is clearly smaller.
>>
>>I just proved it isn't!
>
>No you did not.
>
>>
>>
>>>Maybe 10^40 and it is easy to prove it.
>>
>>PROVE IT! Stop your absurd assertions!
>
>Ok here is a proof it is less than 10^55
>
>For every position you do the following steps:
>
>1)defining place for the kings:
>less than 64^2=2^12 possibilities
>2)defining the empty squares of the rest of the pieces 2^62 possibilities
>
>3)defining the type of the pieces in the non empty squares.
>
>Every non empty square has 10 possibilities(5 for white and 5 for black):
>1)White queen
>2)White Rook
>3)White bishop
>4)White knight
>5)White pawn
>
>The total number of cases is 10 for every one of the 30 squares(or less non
>empty squares so you have at most 10^30 possibilities.
>
>4)defining the side to move 2 possibilities
>
>5)define the ep flag 8 possibilities
>
>6)defining castling rights(16 possibilities in the worst case)
>
>2^74*10^30*2*8*16<10^55
>
>Most of the positions are illegal because position when the side to move is in
>check is illegal or position when white has 9 pawns is illegal.
>
>If you limit yourself only to legal positions than 10^40 seems to be a good
>estimate.
>
>Uri

Well it's NOT!
Key word again... "Seems". You use that a LOT Uri.
Possible moves... 10 ^120th Power!   IN an "average game of 40 moves...
NOW REFUTE IT!
Can't huh?



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