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Subject: Re: An Experiment that disproves Hyatt's 1000X NPS Theory

Author: Mridul Muralidharan

Date: 22:19:17 09/17/05

Go up one level in this thread


On September 18, 2005 at 00:51:17, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On September 18, 2005 at 00:36:15, Mridul Muralidharan wrote:
>
>>On September 17, 2005 at 23:53:05, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On September 17, 2005 at 22:33:58, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>>>
>>>>On September 17, 2005 at 17:02:09, ALI MIRAFZALI wrote:
>>>>
>>>>Take a time control of 40 in 2 with pocket fritz against crafty without nullmove
>>>>and give crafty factor 1000 in nps extra.
>>>>
>>>>Deep Blue didn't use nullmove either.
>>>
>>>What does null move have to do with it?
>>>
>>>In 1996 there wasn't a computer on the planet that could beat deep blue.  This
>>>is almost 10 years later.
>>>
>>>What is the point of this discussion???
>>>
>>>Just a very lame attempt at starting a flame war, about a statement I supposedly
>>>made?  (a statement I did _not_ make by the way)...
>>>
>>
>>I dont know about the flamewar part (I thought Vincent did not start the thread)
>>, but the 'without null move part' might be referring to the fact of deep blue
>>not using it.
>>Actually a good test would be :
>>
>>1) 1000x nps advantage
>>2) No null move
>>3) Use full singular extension as 'explained' by them.
>
>This is a completely worthless experiment.  Take out my null-move search.
>Attempt to graft their singular extensions onto my program.  What about my
>evaluation?  My search extensions?  How could one possibly add and remove bits
>and pieces of Crafty, to make something into the approximate skill of deep blue?
>
>Next, why is this important?  My 1000x statement had nothing to do with
>null-move vs no null-move...
>
>>
>>I suspect (3) _will_ kill your search and keep the searchdepths much below what
>>the pocket fritz will get :)
>
>I don't think so.  I had their full SE implemented in Cray Blitz.  Its cost was
>almost 2 plies.  But then tactically it was reaching very deep stuff to offset
>that.  I've never found a workable SE that impressed me as "this is really good"
>when it comes to Crafty...
>
>On the quad opteron, my search depth would then probably drop to 13 plies.  But
>then I get a factor of 1000X faster.  My branching factor would be closer to 6
>with no null-move, which would ramp me up by 4 plies without null move, or 10
>plies with normal null move and a branching factor of around 2.0...
>
>
>
>>
>>So , even though Deep blue might have been invicible from programs of that age's
>>standards - it will get royally kicked around by even weak amateur programs of
>>today (bugfree ones ofcourse) running on modern hardware !
>>
>>Regards,
>>Mridul
>
>again, based on what?  Null-move is not generally credited with making a program
>200 Elo stronger.  I might one day run some decent-length games with null vs
>non-null to see what the actual rating difference would be for Crafty, then one
>might actually extrapolate what 1000x faster hardware would do by actually
>playing that time-odds match as well.  Then we don't need to guess, speculate,
>or anything else...
>
>I'll remind you that a few years ago (I don't remember exactly when although you
>can find precise mention of the experiment here) I had the chance to play Crafty
>(I think on some quad box, which one I really don't remember) against Cray Blitz
>(less singular extensions, the version on the machine I had access to did not
>have that version) on a T932.  Thing was searching about 7M nodes per second.
>It gave crafty a pretty good drubbing.  And Cray Blitz on that machine could not
>touch deep thought, much less deep blue, based on actual OTB games against them
>at ACM events...

I think you are misreading my statements - and I am _not_ continuing with what
was initially posted.
<rambling>
There is this usual perception that 'deep blue solved chess' - which is a load
of shit : and if nothing, this will disprove it.
Yes , it might have been strong for programs of its time : thats all.
Compared to programs of today , it may get a sound thrashing.
Crafty was getting what - 15-17 ply at WCCC2005 ? And deep blue was getting like
12 or so ?
</rambling>

We cannot really approximate Deep blue since we dont know what was put inside it
- what eval , what extension parameters (other than the published ones) , how
bad was its branching factor , how bad was its move ordering , how it was doing
qsearch , pruning , how stupid was its speedup (not approximate extrapolated
values : actual time to depth reduction) etc - and in most of these , naw - all
of these , it will be very inferior to what most of us do today - simply because
7 years is a lot of time and much progress has been made.

So how best can we approximate it ? I strongly suspect if IBM will ever bring it
out of cold storage and allow us to practically test a match ;)

The best we can do is :
Take a bugfree program like crafty , add SE to it (very very expensive) , remove
null move from it , remove egtb , essentally try to dumb it down to what might
have been available at deep blue's times (you might be having crafty versions
from that time right ?) and give it a 1000x speed advantage.
This is _not_ going to be a deep blue versus crafty match - but an approximation
vs crafty match.
Note : the singular extension shortcuts that Bruce (he did it right ?) posted
were an approximation and not close to being as expensive as what deep blue did
- and even Bruce's methods tend to be very expensive without nullmove pruning as
depths increase (it will not be a static 2 ply advantage).

I am not sure how many takers will be there for this 'match' , but it will
definitely be an interesting contest.

And , you are up really late :)

Regards,
Mridul



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