Author: J. Wesley Cleveland
Date: 11:25:05 05/14/99
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On May 14, 1999 at 13:14:36, KarinsDad wrote: >On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote: > >>Hello >>Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at >>the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M >>nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption. >>If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the >>same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will >>knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform. >>I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance >>anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the >>difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base >>this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit. >>Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise >>than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something >>here in making this estimate? >>In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match. >>Bets anyone? :) >>Regards >>Peter > >As stated in other posts, the 30-70 points per doubling starts dropping at the >larger elos, so using conventional chess theory, this might result in a rating >of 2700 or so. > >However, consider the following: > >At 120 mnps, you could calculate ALL moves (i.e. exhaustive search) for most >positions to ply 6 in about 8 seconds. In a 40/2 game, this would leave you with >about 172 seconds per move to calculate normally (minmax) beyond ply 6. This >would mean that the program would never make a tactical mistake below ply 6. >This should be a major advantage over current max ply 2, 3, or 4 exhaustive >search programs. > You seem to misunderstand alpha-beta. Alpha-beta *always* finds the same "best" move as exhaustive search does at any depth. What it does not tell you is how much better the "best" move is.
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