Author: KarinsDad
Date: 10:14:36 05/14/99
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On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote: >Hello >Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at >the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M >nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption. >If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the >same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will >knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform. >I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance >anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the >difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base >this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit. >Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise >than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something >here in making this estimate? >In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match. >Bets anyone? :) >Regards >Peter As stated in other posts, the 30-70 points per doubling starts dropping at the larger elos, so using conventional chess theory, this might result in a rating of 2700 or so. However, consider the following: At 120 mnps, you could calculate ALL moves (i.e. exhaustive search) for most positions to ply 6 in about 8 seconds. In a 40/2 game, this would leave you with about 172 seconds per move to calculate normally (minmax) beyond ply 6. This would mean that the program would never make a tactical mistake below ply 6. This should be a major advantage over current max ply 2, 3, or 4 exhaustive search programs. Additionally, Garry Kasparov normally looks 6 to 10 ply into a position (at least this is what he claims). This would mean that whereas Garry would often be looking 6 ply selectively into a position, the program would be looking 6 ply exhaustively into the position. Considering that at 40/2 the program would still have 172 seconds to consider beyond ply 6 (on average per move), it becomes apparent that it would become more and more difficult for Kasparov to come up with any sort of tactical combination that the program could not foresee. Also, the program could exhaustively search ply 6 and some portion of ply 7 during pondering (on average) so that when it is it's turn to move, it would usually have it's full 180 seconds to start working at ply 8. So, the bottom line of what I am saying is that a programmer could change his paradigm on what is normally allowable in a chess program at today's speeds and include elements which are not even considered today. He could exhaustively search to ply 6, he could exhaustively search all checks, he may drop out null moves in some circumstances (and find an occassional position where 2 in a row for the same side was not sufficient), he may search deeper after the quiescence search and find more sacrifices, etc. The ability to "tweak" the design are much greater than at the slower speeds where there is a constant fight to only examine worthwhile paths, etc. The ability to change how to design the program could gain 100 to 200 elo as well and such a program could possibly get as high as 2900 elo at 40/2. KarinsDad :)
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