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Subject: Re: ELO Rating of DB jr. @120M NPS ??? (look out Garry K)

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 13:58:03 05/14/99

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On May 14, 1999 at 11:07:36, José Carlos wrote:

>On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote:
>
>>Hello
>>Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at
>>the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M
>>nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption.
>>If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the
>>same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will
>>knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform.
>>I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance
>>anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the
>>difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base
>>this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit.
>>Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise
>>than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something
>>here in making this estimate?
>>In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match.
>>Bets anyone? :)
>>Regards
>>Peter
>
>
>  The increment of peroformance doubling speed is more little as speed
>increases. Doubling speed allows, usually, to go one ply deeper. So it's very
>different to go from ply 7 to ply 8 than to go from ply 50 to ply 51, isn't it?
>
>  José C.


You need to read the ICCA Journal.  There is lots of evidence (now) that
going deeper does indeed lead to better play.7 to 8 is clearly going to do
more than going from 50 to 51.  But 7 to 8 might not be any better than
going from 14 to 15 or even 19 to 20, based on experiments both I and Ernst
did.  Programs _still_ find better moves at deeper depths, even when the
depth is increased from 14 to 15 or 15 to 16.




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