Author: Dave Gomboc
Date: 22:36:19 12/16/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 16, 1999 at 20:08:25, Dann Corbit wrote: >On December 16, 1999 at 19:09:09, pete wrote: >>On December 16, 1999 at 18:50:55, robert michelena wrote: >[snip] >>>Seriously, my highest rating was around 1620. >[snip] >>then if you are really serious which I tend to believe to some extent look at >>the ELO system ; now assume for one second the progs play at about 2500 USCF . >>Ok ? >> >>Ok , you have your own experiences ( them progs are simply unbeatable , which is >>predictable as the rating difference should be about 900 points to you ) , but >>now think about a player rated about 2000-2100 USCF which is _far_ away from >>master strength ; see the number of points he can expect from the top programs ? >> >>Do you think you really are competent to make a fair judgement here ? > >Using the above as a 'frinstance to model with, >The oft repeated table: > >Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 >Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 >Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 >Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 >Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 > >2500 - 2050 = 450. >Between 9 % 5% of points will be won by that difference. >An occasional win should not be at all surprising. With 100 gmaes played, if >your rating were 2100, you should get 9 points (on average). Anything from 18 >draws to 9 wins. > >Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 >Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 >Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 >Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 >2500 - 1620 = 880. >Between 1% and 1/2 of 1% of the points will be one (much closer to 1/2 of 1%) >So play 100 games under tournament conditions to get one draw. > >Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 >Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 > >I don't think (however) that an argument from math will prove effective either. > >I'll bet that the really good players like Vincent score remarkably well against >programs (unless their Achille's heel is tactics). The normal distribution does not accurately predict the occurance of large upsets. Elo himself discussed this in his book, which you can reference for further details. Dave
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