Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 22:47:28 12/16/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 17, 1999 at 01:36:19, Dave Gomboc wrote: >On December 16, 1999 at 20:08:25, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On December 16, 1999 at 19:09:09, pete wrote: >>>On December 16, 1999 at 18:50:55, robert michelena wrote: >>[snip] >>>>Seriously, my highest rating was around 1620. >>[snip] >>>then if you are really serious which I tend to believe to some extent look at >>>the ELO system ; now assume for one second the progs play at about 2500 USCF . >>>Ok ? >>> >>>Ok , you have your own experiences ( them progs are simply unbeatable , which is >>>predictable as the rating difference should be about 900 points to you ) , but >>>now think about a player rated about 2000-2100 USCF which is _far_ away from >>>master strength ; see the number of points he can expect from the top programs ? >>> >>>Do you think you really are competent to make a fair judgement here ? >> >>Using the above as a 'frinstance to model with, >>The oft repeated table: >> >>Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 >>Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 >>Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 >>Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 >>Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 >> >>2500 - 2050 = 450. >>Between 9 % 5% of points will be won by that difference. >>An occasional win should not be at all surprising. With 100 gmaes played, if >>your rating were 2100, you should get 9 points (on average). Anything from 18 >>draws to 9 wins. >> >>Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 >>Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 >>Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 >>Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 >>2500 - 1620 = 880. >>Between 1% and 1/2 of 1% of the points will be one (much closer to 1/2 of 1%) >>So play 100 games under tournament conditions to get one draw. >> >>Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 >>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 >> >>I don't think (however) that an argument from math will prove effective either. >> >>I'll bet that the really good players like Vincent score remarkably well against >>programs (unless their Achille's heel is tactics). > >The normal distribution does not accurately predict the occurance of large >upsets. Elo himself discussed this in his book, which you can reference for >further details. Of course, for a single contest, it does not accurately predict anything. So what does he say about large upsets? More frequent that predicted? Less frequent? I don't have the book (does anyone know where to buy it from?)
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